Weekly Market Insights: Economy Continues Upward Trend

Stocks posted gains for the week to close out a stellar month, aided by positive economic data and reports that all major banks had passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.02%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 2.35%. The Nasdaq Composite index added 2.19%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 0.76%.^1,2,3

Stocks Climb As Recession Fears Ease

Investors shrugged off weekend news of a short-lived insurrection in Russia and calls later in the week for more restrictive monetary policies from global central bankers.

What powered early-week gains? New home sales, durable goods orders, and a rise in consumer confidence proved influential. More so were Thursday’s reports of a drop in initial jobless claims and an upward revision in first quarter Gross Domestic Product growth, which helped allay recession fears. The results of the Fed’s annual bank stress tests, which all major banks passed–further emboldened investors.

Stock prices rallied Friday following an encouraging inflation report, capping the end to a solid week, month, and first half.

Global Central Bankers Meet

At last week’s European Central Bank Forum, central-bank governors from around the world gathered to discuss their monetary outlook and the policies needed to manage inflation amid unexpected economic strength.

Fed Chair Powell reiterated that more rate hikes were coming owing to a robust labor market. He added that he wouldn’t dismiss the idea of hiking rates at consecutive Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. While saying there is a possibility of an economic downturn, Powell didn’t believe it was the most likely case.

Meanwhile, bankers from the European Central Bank and the U.K. echoed Powell’s comments, declaring that further rate hikes are needed to tame their still-elevated inflation rates.⁴

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Manufacturing. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday: Factory Orders. FOMC Minutes.

Thursday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Jobless Claims. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite. Job Openings and Turnover Survey (JOLTS). 

Friday: Employment Situation.

^{Source: Econoday, June 30, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Thursday: Seven and I Holdings Co., Inc. (SVNDY), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI)

^{Source: Zacks, June 30, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Only with a burning patience can we conquer the splendid city which will give light, justice and dignity to all mankind.”

– Pablo Neruda

Can You Claim The Child Tax Credit For Other Dependents?

Even though you may not be able to claim the child tax credit, you may be able to claim the credit for other dependents under your care. The Internal Revenue Service issues a max of $500 for each dependent who meets specific conditions.

These conditions include:

• Dependents who are age 17 or older on December 31 of the tax year.
• Dependents who have individual taxpayer identification numbers.
• Dependents living with the taxpayer for more than six months of the year (remember the special rules for divorced or separated parents or parents who live apart).

The credit begins to phase out when the taxpayer’s income exceeds $200,000. This phaseout begins for married couples filing a joint tax return at $400,000.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁵

Yoga For Stability

You don’t have to pull out the yoga mat and get your designer leggings on to enjoy this relaxing practice’s many benefits. Even if you’ve never done yoga before, these poses may help you improve your balance and stability:

• Knee to Chest – Start by standing with your feet hip-width apart with your hands on your hips; this is called mountain pose. Now, lift your left knee to hip height so your upper leg (thigh) is parallel with the floor. Flex your left foot and hold this pose for three deep breaths. Repeat on the other side.
• Tree Pose – Start with the same mountain pose as the first movement. Now, shift your weight into your left foot, and allow your right knee to turn out to the side as you bring your right foot in to rest at your left ankle, shin, or thigh, depending on what’s comfortable. Make sure you’re not putting your foot on the joint itself.
• Dancer Pose – Start in mountain pose. Bend your right knee and slowly lift your right foot off the ground. As you do that, lift your left arm to balance yourself. Hold for three breaths and repeat on the other side.

Tip adapted from SilverSneakers.com⁶

What 9-letter word remains an English word each time you remove a letter from it until it becomes a 1-letter word? (Hint: You can remove letters from any part of the word.)

Last week’s riddle: You hold 3 U.S. coins in your hand. None of them are dimes, pennies, or quarters. They total 60¢. What 3 coins do you have in hand?  Answer: Two nickels and a 50-cent piece.

Al Khazneh (The Treasury), Petra, Jordan.

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2023.}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2023.}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2023.}

^{4. CNBC, June 28, 2023.}

^{5. IRS.gov, October 18, 2022.}

^{6. SilverSneakers.com, February 15, 2023.}