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As you probably know, there has been a lot of market volatility in recent months. Being a financial advisor, I get asked a lot of questions, even from people who aren’t my clients! Some ask if it’s a good time to invest in the markets, or if they should be sticking their money under a mattress. Others ask me about what the future holds for the economy. But the most common question I get is this:
“What,” they say, “is the number one financial tip you can give me?”
Here’s my answer:
You’re probably wondering what I mean. It’s simple. When is the worst time to buy a home security system? After a break-in. When’s the worst time to check your tire pressure? After you’ve already had a blowout. When’s the worst time to put your seatbelt on?
You get the idea.
It’s a fundamental fact of life, and it extends to your finances, too. I can’t say for sure when the next bear market will come – and the recent volatility is not necessarily an indication that a bear is just around the corner. What I can say, however, is that a bear market is inevitable, because the markets can take hits just like everything else.
Whether the next bear market comes this year or next, there’s only one thing to do about it, and that’s to have a plan. But a plan is nearly useless after the fact.
We’ve known this lesson since we were kids. Aesop, that ancient master of common sense, says it better than I can in his story, “The Caged Bird and the Bat.”
A singing bird was confined in a cage which hung outside a window and had a way of singing at night when all other birds were asleep. One night, a bat came and clung to the bars of the cage. The bat asked the bird why she was silent by day and sang only at night.
“I have a very good reason for doing so,” said the bird. “It was once when I was singing in the daytime that a fowler was attracted by my voice. He set his nets for me and caught me. Since then, I have never sung except by night.” The bat replied, “It is no use your doing that now when you are a prisoner. If only you had done so before you were caught, you might still have been free.”
As your financial advisor, one of my most important responsibilities is to help you do now what people in the future will wish they had done earlier. That includes preparing for more market volatility.
By reviewing your portfolio, your goals, your current vulnerability to risk, and your overall finances, we can do what needs to be done now rather than waiting until it’s too late. We can plan for the future before the future becomes the present. We can take precautions before the next market crisis. Please fill the questionnaire out and return it to me as soon as possible. By doing this, we can determine:
• Whether it’s time to focus on preserving your money over growing your money.
• Whether you currently own investments not under my management that are unsuitable for your financial goals – especially with more volatility knocking on the door.
• How the recent volatility may be affecting you and what we can do about it.
Market volatility is on the rise. By taking suitable precautions with your money, you’ll find that it’s always there to support you.
Because, after all… Precautions are useless after a crisis.
As always, thank you for your business! We look forward to hearing from you soon.
Me and You. True Love. Be Mine.
People have been giving candy hearts with little messages on them for Valentine’s Day for over 100 years. But most likely not this year. A new company purchased the rights to the sweets but announced they would not have enough time to make them for this Valentine’s Day.1
For the first time in over a century, everyone will have to celebrate Valentine’s without the day’s most popular candy.2
A crisis? Not really. When I saw the news circulating on the internet, it got me pondering about something called The Five Love Languages. You see, there’s a theory that every person expresses and experiences love in different “languages”. To put it simply, each of us has our own preferred way of receiving love from others.
For example, some people feel the most loved when they hear words of gratitude and affirmation.
You inspire me.
I love you.
Thank you.
Others feel the most loved when they receive acts of service.
Breakfast in bed.
Folding the laundry.
Watching the kids so he/she can sleep in.
Some feel most loved when they receive gifts.
That new book they’ve been wanting to read.
Flowers.
Their favorite chocolate.
Others simply want to spend quality time with their spouse or partner.
Conversation.
Date night!
A weekend away at a B&B.
For the rest, there’s no stronger sign of love than physical touch.
A passionate kiss.
A long hug.
A tender massage.
First proposed in 1995 by author Gary Chapman, the theory has inspired many people to practice expressing love for their partner in the way that means the most to them. But here’s the amazing thing. Whichever love language you or your significant other prefers, they all have something in common: They are all so easy to speak!
That’s the thing about true love: It doesn’t take much to express it!
How difficult is it to tell someone you love them every day?
How much time does it take to do the dishes?
How much effort does it require to spend an intimate evening with the person who means more to you than anyone else?
The answer: Not difficult/Not much time/Not much effort at all.
Most of the time, we make a big deal about the pageantry and traditions of Valentine’s Day, when really, the day is simply an opportunity. An opportunity to do something, give something, or say something in a way that means the most to the person who matters the most.
And that’s why Valentine’s Day doesn’t need candy hearts. Because, in the end: Candy hearts take months to make, but connecting hearts takes only seconds or minutes.
On behalf of everyone at Research Financial Strategies, I wish you and yours a lovely Valentine’s Day!
1 “America’s favorite Valentine’s Day candy is unavailable this year,” CNBC, January 23, 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/americas-favorite-valentines-day-candy-is-unavailable-this-year.html
2 “Most Popular Valentine’s Candy by State,” CandyStore.com, January 17, 2019. https://www.candystore.com/blog/holidays/valentines-candy-popular-states/
3 “The Five Love Languages,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Five_Love_Languages
Central banks take a turn.
At its first policy meeting of 2019, the U.S. Federal Reserve changed direction. After four rate increases in 2018, Chair Jerome Powell announced interest rates were on hold. Last week, banks in the United Kingdom, Australia, and India followed suit by either reducing rates or cautioning rate reductions were likely, reported Sam Fleming and Jamie Smyth of Financial Times.
The dovish tone of central banks owes much to slowing global growth. January’s International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook lowered global growth estimates for 2019 and 2020. Changing expectations were fueled both by factors that slowed momentum in the second half of 2018 and by issues that pose a potential risk to continued economic growth. These included:
These issues have had limited effect on the U.S. economy; however, global risks are affecting the performance of some U.S. companies. Financial Times explained:
“The U.S. domestic economy has continued to put in a robust performance, with the number of new jobs in January coming in well ahead of Wall Street expectations and wage growth running comfortably above inflation. But corporate giants in the S&P 500 index, which generate over a third of their earnings overseas, are sounding the alarm about faltering overseas demand in markets including China, where the government has been battling against a slowdown. Smaller U.S. firms are feeling the global chill as well.”
Randall Forsyth at Barron’s reported major U.S. benchmarks finished last week higher, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries hit a 13-month low. Outside the United States, some global stock markets moved lower.
AT THE INTERSECTION OF ECONOMICS AND VALENTINE’S DAY…Author and illustrator Liz Fosslien has thought a lot about economics and Valentine’s Day. In ‘14 Ways an Economist Says I Love You,’ she offers this advice: “Give your loved one a nerdy Valentine and they’ll be yours forever! Why? Because if you give them diamonds/cufflinks this year, anything you get them next year will fall short. Give them [a nerdy Valentine] and anything they receive next year will be a step up. It’s called expectation management and is the key to a long and happy relationship.”
Fosslien suggests a variety of approaches to saying, ‘I love you,’ in economic terms. (Each is accompanied by an illustrative chart or graph at Fosslien.com/heart.) If you’re looking for a way to express the magnitude or enduring nature of your feelings, you could try:
If the dismal science of economics doesn’t deliver the level of romance your relationship requires, you can always go for the cufflinks or the diamonds.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Taking in the good, whenever and wherever we find it, gives us new eyes for seeing and living.”
–Krista Tippett, American journalist
Best regards,
John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.
Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
The page you requested could not be found. Try refining your search, or use the navigation above to locate the post.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.
Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/24508f0e-2b91-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/01/11/weo-update-january-2019
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-global-slowdown-could-soon-hit-the-u-s-51549676496
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-asia-stocks-slip-renewed-anxiety-over-005019341–finance.html
http://fosslien.com/heart/
https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/225253.Krista_Tippett
And, U.S. stock markets celebrated.
Last week, the Federal Reserve put itself on hold. The Federal Open Market Committee met on Wednesday, January 30, 2019, to discuss the state of the economy and determine policy. After the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered a positive assessment of U.S. economic strength that was leavened with a few concerns.
“We continue to expect that the American economy will grow at a solid pace in 2019, although likely slower than the very strong pace of 2018…Despite this positive outlook…Growth has slowed in some major foreign economies, particularly China and Europe. There is elevated uncertainty around several unresolved government policy issues, including Brexit, ongoing trade negotiations, and the effects from the partial government shutdown in the United States…We are now facing a somewhat contradictory picture of generally strong U.S. macroeconomic performance, alongside growing evidence of cross-currents. At such times, common sense risk management suggests patiently awaiting greater clarity…”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) welcomed the news and delivered its best January performance since 1987, reported Reuters.
Earnings may have helped. Through the end of last week, almost one-half of companies in the S&P 500 had shared fourth quarter 2018 earnings. FactSet reported the blended year-over-year earnings growth – which includes earnings for companies that have reported and earnings estimates for companies that have not yet reported – was 12.4 percent. That’s lower than the 20-plus percent growth companies have delivered since late 2017, and it’s the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
There was good news to close the week, too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported far more jobs were created in January than analysts had anticipated, although unemployment ticked higher for the month because of the government shutdown, reported Bloomberg.
here they are: Some of The best inventions of 2018. Time Magazine asked its editors and correspondents to nominate inventions that are making the world smarter and more fun. The magazine whittled down the suggestions to 50 inventions it considers to be the very best. They include:
Just for fun, check out the other inventions at Time.com.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The fact is that my brain goes out to play. That’s what creativity is – intelligence having fun.”
–Joey Reiman, American businessman
Best regards,
John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.
Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
The page you requested could not be found. Try refining your search, or use the navigation above to locate the post.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.
Sources:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20190130.pdf?mod=article_inline
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/fed-pause-validates-market-fears-about-u-s-growth-idUSKCN1PQ4MW
https://insight.factset.com/earnings-season-update-february-1-2019
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/u-s-payrolls-rise-304-000-while-wage-gains-cool-amid-shutdown
http://time.com/5453189/how-we-chose-50-best-inventions-2018/
http://time.com/collection/best-inventions-2018/5454324/zozosuit/
http://time.com/collection/best-inventions-2018/5454469/gravity-blanket/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/243970419_A_Systematic_Review_Assessing_Bidirectionality_between_Sleep_Disturbances_Anxiety_and_Depression
https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/weighted-blanket-for-anxiety-review#5
http://time.com/collection/best-inventions-2018/5454282/grypmat/
http://time.com/collection/best-inventions-2018/5454439/lynq/
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/03/02/fun/#note-15588-5
Whether you own a house or rent an apartment, building a smart home is easier than it has ever been. Homeowners and renters can purchase kits that integrate specific smart items or they can select smart home products, such as light bulbs, crockpots, coffee makers, thermostats, vacuums, ovens, doorbells, mailboxes, window shades, and security cameras. After downloading the appropriate apps, anyone can connect everything together through a Wi-Fi network.1, 2
Smart digital assistants (SDAs) are the handy commanders of the smart home. Analysts estimated, by the end of 2018, SDAs would be active in almost one-half of American homes.3
These devices won’t take down the holiday decorations, but they will instruct the dishwasher to wash the dishes, tell the sound system what you want to hear, and inform the smart feeder it’s time for Fido’s supper. If you’re a road warrior, you can connect your automobile. If you work long hours, you can connect your office, too.4
Here’s the thing.
While smart homes offer tremendous convenience – and can be a lot of fun – they also have the potential to make Americans vulnerable to cybercrime. According to research published by ScienceDirect, security experts anticipate smart homes will become targets for cybercriminals because they are easy to infiltrate.5 For example, hackers could:
Just about everything in a smart home can be hacked, and criminals try all the time. Norton reported, “At times of peak activity, the average IoT [Internet of Things] device was attacked once every two minutes, according to the 2017 Internet Security Threat Report, published by Symantec.”6
Securing your smart home
When building a smart home, it’s critical to look beyond cutting-edge gadgetry and give serious thought to system security. Here are six tips for securing your smart home:
Build a strong foundation. Your router is the front door to your smart home and it should be solid and equipped with strong locks – it is your smart home’s foundational item. It connects all of your devices to the Internet. When you move money from one account to another using a home computer or smartphone, the data flows through your router. When you stream shows and movies, this data also flows through your router. You can’t afford to ignore it.6 The first thing to do is make sure your router is encrypting data. Norton suggests selecting Wi-Fi Protected Access 2 (WPA2) to protect your data. Choose a router that supports WPA2, and then take a few extra minutes to set it up.6
Consumer Reports suggested several steps that can help keep data private. First, ensure your router software is up-to-date. Second, choose strong passwords. Typically, routers will have two passwords, one to control the router’s settings and a second one to provide access to smart devices. Third, turn off any router features you don’t use.4
Set your network to private. Smart devices have default settings. Some devices default to optimize privacy and security, others do not. Instead of assuming manufacturers have your best interests in mind, review the privacy settings for devices as you connect them.6
Choose 2FA. If the app for your smart device offers two-factor authentication (2FA), use it. In order to make changes, you will have to log in and then confirm your log in by entering a code that’s sent via text or email. If you get a code and didn’t try to log in, you know someone is trying to access your system.6
Give guests a network of their own. If you have a smart home, Norton suggests setting up a separate network for visitors. You cannot be certain whether someone else’s devices are secure. By having guests log on to a separate network, you protect your home and connected devices.6
Upgrade your devices. You probably won’t be passing smart devices from one generation of the family to the next. In fact, you shouldn’t.6
Prepare for a power outage. Many smart devices work when the power goes out. Make sure you know which of yours will and which won’t. For example, did your smart thermostat or smart door lock come with regular or rechargeable batteries or some other type of backup?8
It’s particularly important to understand how your home security system will respond. Systems that rely on Voice-over-Internet-Protocol (VoIP) and the Internet must have online connections or they don’t work. Your security cameras may also have issues during power outages, although a battery bank backup could solve the problem, according to MakeUseOf.com.8
Don’t let the excitement of building a smart home cause you to lose sight of the importance of home security. When your household devices communicate with one another, keeping your data safe presents a whole new set of challenges.
The page you requested could not be found. Try refining your search, or use the navigation above to locate the post.
Sources:
1 https://www.the-ambient.com/reviews/best-smart-kitchen-devices-469
2 https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/08/the-connected-renter-how-to-make-your-apartment-smarter/
3 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nearly-half-of-us-homes-will-have-a-smart-speaker-by-years-end-adobe-says-2018-09-10
4 https://www.ecnmag.com/article/2018/08/connected-cars-key-smart-homes-future
5 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877050915030318?via%3Dihub (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/Peak+Documents/Feb_2019_ScienceDirect-Cyber_Security_Challenges_within_the_Connected_Home_Ecosystem_Futures-Footnote_5.pdf)
6 https://us.norton.com/internetsecurity-iot-smart-home-security-core.html
7 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-ways-to-keep-your-smart-home-from-being-hacked-2016-10-17
8 https://www.makeuseof.com/tag/power-outages-smart-home/