Weekly Market Commentary – December 5, 2016

by Jack Reutemann | Dec 5, 2016 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

The Markets

Flirting with higher interest rates.

Last week, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to a 17-month high of 2.44 percent, reported The Wall Street Journal, before retreating to finish the week at about 2.4 percent.

As we’ve mentioned previously, some experts suspect the bull market in bonds, which has persisted for more than 30 years, may be headed into bear territory. In part, this is because the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to increase the fed funds rate in December. Last week, CME’s FedWatch Tool indicated there was almost a 99 percent chance the Fed would raise rates in December. Bond yields often reflect the actions of the Fed. If interest rates rise, bond prices move lower, resulting in a higher bond yields.

Another issue affecting interest rates is inflation. For several years, low inflation has supported the “trend within markets…to invest in rate-sensitive investments like bonds, which benefit from low inflation, and their equity surrogates which benefit from falling bond yields,” wrote Schroders.

In recent weeks, the bond market has been influenced by inflation prospects. The Wall Street Journal explained:

Worries about higher inflation have been a main factor fueling one of the biggest bond market selloffs since the crisis over the past weeks. The selloff had accelerated after the U.S. election in early November. Investors then had bet that the prospect of expansive fiscal and economy policy from the new U.S. administration would lead to stronger growth and higher inflation.

Last week, a measure of wage inflation moved slightly lower. This appears to have assuaged some investors’ concerns about inflation as bond yields moved lower on Friday.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Growth, Growth, Where’s The Growth?

It’s that time of the year again: The time when pundits and analysts assess the present and forecast the future. Here are a few predictions from The World in 2017, which is published by The Economist:

• Forecasts suggest the United States will not be among the fastest growing economies in the world during 2017. The top ten countries for economic growth are expected to be: 1) Yemen, 2) Myanmar, 3) Côte d’Ivoire, 4) Mongolia, 5) Laos, 6) Ghana, 6) India, 8) Cambodia, 9) Bhutan, and 10) Djibouti.  
• One country’s cinema box office gross may surpass that of the United States. Fifteen cinema screens are being added every day in China. During 2017, the box office revenue in the country is estimated to be $10.3 billion, higher than that of the United States.
• Automobile companies are revving their engines. Did you know there are just 21 cars per 1,000 people in India? In China, the ratio is about 120 per 1,000. That means there is a lot of room for growth – or alternative forms of transportation.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) may create new ethical dilemmas. “Look at ‘medtech.’ Fans claim AI will remake health care, using algorithms to do the grunt work of diagnostics. Yet, could a virtual doctor explain its thinking so patients can make informed decisions?”
• The sharing economy grows to encompass jets and yachts. Apparently, a bunch of Asian millionaires are interested in private aircraft. Some in the tourism industry are hoping they’ll be willing to share.

We hope 2017 will be filled with pleasing discoveries, stimulating events, and thrilling innovation.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

Happiness is having a large, loving, caring, close-knit family in another city. –George Burns, American comedian

Weekly Market Commentary – November 28, 2016

by Jack Reutemann | Nov 28, 2016 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

 The Markets

It’s a myth!

According to WebMD, the amino acid L-Tryptophan is not responsible for Americans’ post-Thanksgiving food coma. The real culprit is overeating. So, last week’s post-feast sleepiness can be blamed on big appetites.

Investors also indulged their appetite for risk last week. Barron’s reported:

…the stock market sent all four major U.S. benchmarks – the Standard & Poor’s 500, the Dow industrials, the NASDAQ Composite, and the Russell 2000 – to record highs last week, on the same day. Lest you think that’s an easy feat, we haven’t seen such a gathering at the summit since December 31, 1999, back when we had juvenile waistlines and Napster accounts. Then, for emphasis and encore, the market did it again a day later, a back-to-back fete the likes of which we haven’t seen since the positively Pleistocene era…of 1998. The buying binge continued on Friday, after Thanksgiving’s regrettable interruption, propelling the indexes to – you guessed it – more record highs.

U.S. stock markets are doing well and so are some overseas markets. Barron’s reported Canada’s national index is up 14.3 percent for the year, Thailand’s is up 14.4 percent, Indonesia’s is up 12.6 percent, and the United Kingdom’s is up 8.5 percent.

It’s quite gratifying to watch the value of stocks rise. However, U.S. shareholders may want to ask, “Is this congregation of indexes at record highs a sign that our seven-year-old bull market is finding a second wind – or is it a signal that the party has peaked?”

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

How much wealth is there in the world?

In 2016, the Earth’s inhabitants were worth about $256 trillion, according to the Global Wealth Report by Credit Suisse Research Institute. Population has grown along with wealth.

1. North America, which has more than 5 percent of the world’s population, is the wealthiest region with about $92 trillion of the world’s wealth.
2. Europe, which accounts for about 12 percent of the world’s population, is next with about $73 trillion.
3. The Asia-Pacific region, excluding China and India, encompasses almost 25 percent of the world’s population, and is worth a bit more than $53 trillion.
4. China has more than 20 percent of the world’s population and comes in just above $23 trillion.
5. Latin America has less than 10 percent of the world’s people and accounts for about $7.5 trillion of the world’s wealth.
6. India, with more than 15 percent of earth’s inhabitants, has almost $3.1 trillion.
7. Africa has more than 10 percent of the world’s population and about $2.5 trillion of its wealth.

The Economist reported:

If you had only $2,220 to your name (adding together your bank deposits, financial investments, and property holdings, and subtracting your debts) you might not think yourself terribly fortunate. But you would be wealthier than half the world’s population… If you had $71,560 or more, you would be in the top tenth. If you were lucky enough to own over $744,400 you could count yourself a member of the global 1% that voters everywhere are rebelling against.

Of course, where a person lives factors into how wealthy they feel. For instance, last week, Expatison.com reported living in New York was 15 percent more expensive than living in London, and London was 30 percent more expensive than living in Toronto. Living in Toronto was 115 percent more expensive than living in Belgrade. Belgrade was 60 percent less expensive than Singapore, and Singapore was 139 percent more expensive than Mumbai.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

You don’t learn to walk by following rules. You learn by doing, and by falling over. –Richard Branson, British businessman and entrepreneur