The new trade deals are here!   
The United States and China signed a preliminary trade deal last week. The next day, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement was approved by the Senate.

The phase-one deal between the United States and China has been analyzed, applauded, disparaged, and questioned. Here is a sampling of what’s being said:

“The eight-part deal includes protections for trade secrets and intellectual property, mechanisms for enforceability, and commitments by Beijing to increase purchases of U.S. goods and services by $200 billion over the next two years. It also broadens U.S. companies’ access to China’s markets…”
— Barron’s

“While the deal isn’t insignificant – China has promised $200 billion in purchases…The sweeping U.S. goals to change the way China’s economy functions, from shrinking state-funded industries to strengthening intellectual property laws, are either absent from the deal or described in vague terms.”
— Foreign Policy

“A truly grand pact between the two countries is some way off – and indeed, may never arrive. But this modest trade agreement shows how much the status quo has changed. Tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars…of imports into both countries remain in place, with an ever-present threat of more. This is not trade peace, but rather a trade truce – and a tense one at that.”
— The Economist

“Moreover, some countries are worried that $200bn of Chinese purchases of US goods that are part of the agreement will enshrine ‘managed trade’ between the world’s two largest economies, possibly flouting market forces, discriminating against their companies and violating WTO commitments.”
— Financial Times

“One aspect that most have not addressed is that this is only a two-year agreement. What happens at the end of the two years is not defined…China has pledged to purchase $36.5 billion in ag products in 2020 and $43.5 billion in 2021. But the issues are no one believes either side will keep up their end of the bargain.”
— AgWeek

Despite a diversity of opinion about the deal, investors were happy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 29,000 for the first time and was up 2.8 percent for the year through last Friday, reported Barron’s.

Culinary trends of the 2010s…The way we eat changed during the past 10 years. The Auguste Escoffier School of the Culinary Arts pointed out sales of American cheese have fallen because younger generations prefer artisanal cheeses.  Unprocessed cheese isn’t the only food trending last decade. 

• Shoot it while it’s hot! Social media has delayed a few meals. More than one-in-four people told Influence.com they had been asked to delay a meal so someone could take a perfect shot to whet followers’ appetites.
• Look at all the rainbows and unicorns. People indulged in rainbow bagels smeared with birthday cake frosting and rainbow grilled cheese sandwiches. If cupcakes, toast, or coffee was sparkly, bright, or shaped – it may have had ‘unicorn’ before its name. Why, you ask? Scientific studies suggest people perceive bright and/or sparkly food to be tastier and less boring than naturally colored food.
• Avocado toast persisted. From simple avocado mashed on crunchy bread to 20-plus ingredient gourmet extravaganzas, avocado toast became a social media sensation.  There are even competing origin stories. Was the first avocado (a.k.a. alligator pear) toast created and consumed in Australia? California? Mexico?
• Meatless meat. Vegetables are delicious. They’re versatile, and now they’re masquerading as meat. America has become passionate about plant-based meat products. There is a catch. Vox reported, “…nutritionists who have conducted analyses have largely found that the meatless meat burgers are, well, fine – not any better for you than a beef burger but not worse, with the specific details depending on which health priorities you have.” 

What is your favorite food trend from the last decade? Putting an egg on top? Meal kits? Kale? Macarons? Fermentation?

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“There’s a rebel lying deep in my soul. Anytime anybody tells me the trend is such and such, I go the opposite direction. I hate the idea of trends. I hate imitation; I have a reverence for individuality.”
― Clint Eastwood, Actor

Best regards,
John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend)
and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of
the historical time periods.  Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Sources:
https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/as-senate-passes-usmca-trump-tells-farmers-to-remember-the-trade-war-money
https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-trade-deal-looks-like-a-modest-positive-but-uncertainties-remain-51579303201 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/01-21-20_Barrons_China_Trade_Deal_Looks_Like_A_Modest_Positive_But_Uncertainties_Remain2.pdf )
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/15/phase-one-us-china-trade-deal-hypothetical-trump-liu-he/
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/01/16/the-new-us-china-trade-deal-marks-an-uneasy-truce (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/01-21-20_Economist-The_New_US_China_Trade_Deal_Hypothetical_Trump_Lie_He3.pdf )
https://www.ft.com/content/6a6b5548-3877-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/01-21-20_FinancialTimes-Content_5.pdf )
https://www.agweek.com/business/markets/4701408-reports-trade-deal-are-let-downs-markets
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-dow-jones-industrial-average-is-headed-for-30-000-51579311984?mod=hp_HERO (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/01-21-20_Barrons_The_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average_Is_Headed_For_30_000_7.pdf )
https://www.escoffier.edu/blog/culinary-arts/a-look-back-at-the-food-trends-of-the-2010s/
https://influence.co/go/content/social-media-etiquette
https://www.eater.com/2016/4/27/11516910/rainbow-food-trend-science-bagels
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/style/unicorn-food-starbucks.html
https://www.tastecooking.com/really-invented-avocado-toast/
https://food52.com/blog/24876-top-food-trends-2010s
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/7/20880318/meatless-meat-mainstream-backlash-impossible-burger
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/trends

It was a nerve-wracking week.
Iran fired 22 ballistic missiles at the Ain Al Asad air base near western Iraq and a second base in northern Iraq following last week’s U.S. drone strike that killed a top Iranian military commander. Newsweek reported the bases suffered minimal damage and there were no casualties from the attack. However, Iran mistakenly downed a commercial airliner, killing all on board, reported CBS News.

U.S. stock prices faltered after the initial attack, but recovered quickly when both sides, “…step[ped] back from further violent escalation…,” reported Barron’s.

U.S. Treasury bond yields dropped sharply last week before rebounding. Financial Times reported the possibility of war caused global investors to seek out investments perceived to be safe havens. Record amounts of cash moved into bond investments, particularly U.S. Treasuries, during the week ended last Wednesday.

Australia was ravaged by wildfires. Citing the Insurance Council of Australia, NPR reported, “The wildfires have killed more than two dozen people, more than a billion animals. They’ve destroyed more than 1,800 houses, an untold number of commercial buildings and thousands of acres of prime farmland…” At the end of last week, 130 fires were burning and 50 were uncontained, according to the BBC. The damage could mark the end Australia’s nearly 30-year economic expansion.

Puerto Rico was shaken by a 5.9 magnitude earthquake. The quake followed a magnitude 6.4 quake that hit the same region four days earlier, reported the Associated Press. Since December 28, the region has been hit by, “…more than 1,280 earthquakes, of which more than 100 were felt and more than 70 were of magnitude 3.5 or greater.”

On Friday, a tepid U.S. employment report cooled U.S. stock returns. However, Barron’s reported all three major U.S. indices closed, “within a half-percentage point of their highest-ever closes.”

More milestones of the past decade. As we mentioned last week, the period from 2010 through 2020 was filled with memorable events. We covered a few in last week’s commentary. Here are some more:

• Gangnam Style. In 2012, Korean pop music went viral with Gangnam Style. Its online video became the first to be viewed one billion times.
• Total solar eclipse. For the first time since June 1918, a solar eclipse was visible across the entire United States in August 2017. We won’t have to wait so long for the next one. Good Housekeeping reported it will happen in 2024.
• Economic confidence increased. In January 2010, Gallup reported just 9 percent of Americans said it was a good time to find a quality job. By the end of 2019, the number had increased to 66 percent.
• Bionic men, women, and children. Bionic people are no longer limited to the realm of science fiction. Prosthetics “…are morphing into mind-controlled extensions of the human body that let their wearers feel what they’re touching,” reported CNET.

 Trillion-dollar stock valuations. Late in the decade, three companies in the technology sector saw their stock valuations reach thirteen digits. Not all have remained at that level.

• Global middle class expansion. At the end of last year, about one-half of the world belonged to the middle class, according to the World Data Lab. Middle class means different things in different countries. Middle class income ranged from $3,872 a year to $38,720 a year.

 The U.S. wealth gap. The St. Louis Federal Reserve explained the gap like this: The ‘income pie’ in the United States grew from $7 trillion in 1989 to almost $12.9 trillion in 2016. The share of pie going to the top 10 percent of earners increased from 42 percent to 50 percent. Lower earners’ shares shrank.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“After many months of reflection and internal discussions, we have chosen to make a transition this year in starting to carve out a progressive new role within this institution. We intend to step back as ‘senior’ members of the Royal Family and work to become financially independent, while continuing to fully support Her Majesty The Queen. It is with your encouragement, particularly over the last few years, that we feel prepared to make this adjustment. We now plan to balance our time between the United Kingdom and North America, continuing to honor our duty to The Queen, the Commonwealth, and our patronages. This geographic balance will enable us to raise our son with an appreciation for the royal tradition into which he was born, while also providing our family with the space to focus on the next chapter, including the launch of our new charitable entity. We look forward to sharing the full details of this exciting next step in due course, as we continue to collaborate with Her Majesty The Queen, The Prince of Wales, The Duke of Cambridge, and all relevant parties. Until then, please accept our deepest thanks for your continued support.”
–The Duke and Duchess of Sussex

Best regards,

John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Sources:
https://www.newsweek.com/military-aircraft-runway-among-damage-iraqi-base-struck-iran-missiles-1481129
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-plane-military-unintentionally-shot-down-jetliner-2020-01-11/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-dow-jones-industrial-average-rises-189-points-for-the-week-despite-mideast-tensions-51578705947?mod=hp_DAY_4 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/01-13-20_Barrons-The_Dow_Rises_189_Points_for_the_Week_Despite_Mideast_Tensions-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (Overview chart) (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/01-13-20_Barrons-Overview_Market_Data-Footnote_4.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (Bonds chart) (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/01-13-20_Barrons-Bonds_Market_Data-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.ft.com/content/3eaf8fe8-3334-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/01-13-20_FinancialTimes-Bond_Funds_had_Record_Inflow_as_Iran_Crisis_Spiralled-Footnote_6.pdf)
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/12/795235653/australias-massive-fires-threaten-to-slow-decades-long-economic-boom
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50951043
https://apnews.com/fd6b234395379a876bddc74e1b882d43
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gangnam_Style
https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/life/g29729623/things-you-forgot-happened-this-decade-2010-to-2019/?slide=25
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/273377/gallup-decade-review-2010-2019.aspx
https://www.cnet.com/news/prosthetic-hands-get-a-sense-of-touch/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-stock-parts-1-trillion-market-cap-51570474138
https://worlddata.io/blog/emerging-trends-in-the-global-middle-class-a-private-conversation-with-dr-homi-kharas
https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2019/august/wealth-inequality-in-america-facts-figures
https://www.instagram.com/p/B7EaGS_Jpb9/?hl=en (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/01-13-20_Instagram_Post-Duke_and_Duchess_of_Sussex_Announcement-Footnote_17.pdf)

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

2019 will be a hard act to follow.
Investors may find themselves reluctant to ring out the old and ring in the new this week. During 2019, stock and bond markets delivered exceptional returns.

Ben Levisohn of Barron’s reported the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 23 percent at the end of last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index had gained 29 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 36 percent.  The S&P 500 and Dow both closed at all-time highs.

Bond indices showed gains in the United States and around the world. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Total Return Index was up 8.87 percent at the end of last week. Its global counterpart, the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index, was up 6.63 percent for the same period.

After a year like 2019, when stock indices delivered exceptional returns, investors’ perceptions about their appetite for risk can change. Great market performance has a way of persuading people their tolerance for risk is higher than it has been in the past. The phenomenon has something to do with recency bias, which is a tendency to remember and weight recent events more heavily than past events.

In other words, during bull markets some people tend to forget about bear markets.

2019 was a wonderful year, but not every year will be like 2019. At the end of last week, the average annual return for the S&P 500 Index over the last 60 years, with dividends reinvested, was about 9.5 percent.

The fact that 2020 may not be like 2019 does not mean it’s time to sell. Successful financial plans and investment strategies should include well-diversified portfolios that are grounded in the investor’s life and financial goals. Every strategy and portfolio should be reviewed periodically and modified when goals have changed, a major life event has occurred, or the investor’s risk tolerance has changed.

If you would like to talk about your strategy and review your portfolio allocations, give us a call. We’d like to hear from you.

The holidays are almost over.
Ahh, the season of good cheer and regifting is coming to an end. Before we head into 2020, the Ohio Department of Transportation deserves a holiday salute for promoting safe driving with holiday humor. About 130 highway message boards across the state offered communications like these:

• Life is fra-gee-lay. Drive safe.
• Stay to the right. Santa needs the left lane tonight.
• If your relatives make you drink, don’t drive.
• Can I refill your eggnog, Eddie?  — Clark
• Deck the halls/ No phone calls/ Fa la la la la
• Drop the phone. We triple dog dare you.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world. You’re doing things you’ve never done before, and, more importantly, you’re doing something.

So that’s my wish for you, and all of us, and my wish for myself. Make new mistakes. Make glorious, amazing mistakes. Make mistakes nobody’s ever made before. Don’t freeze, don’t stop, don’t worry that it isn’t good enough, or it isn’t perfect, whatever it is: art, or love, or work, or family, or life.

Whatever it is you’re scared of doing, do it.
Make your mistakes, next year and forever.”
–Neil Gaiman, Author

Best regards,
John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-closes-at-record-high-good-luck-next-year-51577491993?mod=hp_DAY_3 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-30-19_Barrons-The_Dow_is_Closing_Out_2019_with_a_Bang-Good_Luck_in_2020-Footnote_1.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LBUSTRUU:IND (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-30-19_Bloomberg-US_Aggregate_Total_Return_Value_Unhedged_USD-Footnote_2.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LEGATRUU:IND (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-30-19_Bloomberg-Global_Aggregate_Total_Return_Index_Value_Unhedged_USD-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/tomorrows-market-probably-wont-look-anything-like-today/
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-historical-return-calculator/ (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-30-19_DQYDJ-S_and_P_500_Historical_Return_Results-Footnote_5.pdf)
https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/state/santa-needs-the-left-lane-tonight-odot-promotes-safe-driving-with-holiday-inspired-signs
http://www.dot.state.oh.us/news/Pages/Christmas-2019-Messages.aspx
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/new-year

From early Babylonians to present-day Americans, people have been celebrating the beginning of every New Year for almost four thousand years!¹ Here are a few ways people celebrate the holiday in the United States:²

• 61 percent of American adults say a prayer on New Year’s Eve
• 44 percent plan to kiss someone at midnight
• 22 percent fall asleep before the New Year arrives
• 45 percent make resolutions to lose weight, spend less, save more, etc.
• 73 percent keep their resolutions for less than two days

One million people gather in Times Square and 2,000 pounds of confetti fall on their heads. One billion people around the world watch festivities on television. Ushering in the New Year is a momentous event.²

If you have any momentous events in your life – marriage, birth, death, divorce, or something else – please let us know. We want you to be secure financially as momentous changes can alter financial plans.

Let’s hear it for 2019!
Major stock indices in the United States and overseas are poised to deliver double-digit gains for the year. Even with uncertainty about Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), the FTSE 100 boasted a gain of more than 10 percent at the end of last week. That’s not bad for a year which included (in the United States) an inverted yield curve, an earnings recession, and a contentious trade war.

The strong stock market performance of 2019 owes a lot to central banks, and so does the performance of the bond market. Reuters reported,  “…the screeching change of direction by the world’s top central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, which cut U.S. interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis more than a decade earlier…fired bond markets up like a rocket. U.S. Treasuries, the world’s benchmark government IOU, have made a whopping 9.4 percent after yields plunged as much as 120 basis points…German Bunds – Europe’s safest asset – have had their best year in five years, making roughly 5.5% in euro terms as the European Central Bank has reversed course too.”

So, what lessons should we take from 2019?
Perhaps, we should try to come to terms with loss aversion. When you make an investment decision, it’s important to consider the impact of loss aversion on your thinking. The pain from a loss carries twice the impact of the pleasure from a gain. As a result, fear of loss may affect investment decision making.

2019 offered a great example. During a year of exceptional returns, investors pulled money out of stocks at a record pace because they were worried about recession and other issues. Axios reported,  “Data from the Investment Company Institute shows money has been pulled out of [stock investments] in every month this year except January. In total, more than $130 billion has been drawn from [stock investments] in 2019, making it already the largest year of outflows on record.”

When it comes to investing, uncertainty is normal. It is part of investing. Tolerating uncertainty may help investors earn attractive returns. As a result, our advice is to stay invested even when uncertainty makes you nervous, even when markets are falling.

If you have a diversified portfolio built to help you reach your goals, stay with it, unless you risk tolerance has changed. In 2019, pulling money out of stocks meant some investors missed out on some exceptional returns.

Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

The secure act may affect your retirement and your legacy planning
…Last week, reports indicated the ‘Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement’ (SECURE) Act was attached to the federal spending bill President Trump signed into law on Friday.

The SECURE Act is intended to expand retirement savings opportunities. Many of its provisions make it easier for Americans to save more for retirement and, also, to convert their savings into income for retirement. The Act will change IRA rules in some significant ways. For instance, Drinker Biddle and Barron’s reported:

• Contribute to IRA accounts at any age. In the past, Americans had to stop contributing to IRAs at age 70 ½.
• Begin taking required minimum distributions (RMDs) at age 72. The age for RMDs was pushed to 72 from age 70 ½.

The Act also changes post-death IRA distribution rules, eliminating stretch IRA estate planning strategies. Barron’s explained, “Under the bill, beneficiaries of an IRA would need to draw down the account – and pay income tax on the money – over a decade, rather than a lifetime.” This will affect some legacy planning strategies and necessitate the adoption of alternative solutions.

Workplace plans may change, too. Part-time workers are now eligible to participate in defined contribution plans as long as certain criteria are met. The Act also made it easier for defined contribution plans of all sizes to add lifetime income options to plan investment lineups.

In addition, the incentive for smaller business owners to establish workplace retirement plans increased. Tax credits, of up to $5,000 for three years, can be claimed to offset plan start-up costs. Additional tax credits are possible when new plans include automatic enrollment features or existing plans add automatic enrollment features.

If you would like to discuss how the SECURE Act may affect your retirement, business, or legacy plans, please give us a call.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I feel that one of the most important lessons that can be learned is that what we ‘see’ may be different than what is actually in front of us.”
–Mark Singer, Journalist [8]

Best regards,

John F. Reutemann, Jr., CLU, CFP®

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Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.
Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_HAMNAV (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-23-19_Barrons_Market_Data.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-s-p-heading-for-best-year-since-2013-what-fueled-the-rally-51576891986?mod=hp_DAY_3 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-23-19_The_S%26P_Is_Heading_for_Its_Best_Year_Since_2013.pdf )
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-2019-graphic/the-best-year-financial-markets-have-ever-had-idUSKBN1YO266
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/loss-aversion
https://www.axios.com/2019-record-cash-pulled-out-stocks-5d4763a9-5724-4c64-be23-356c4fcbd002.html
https://www.drinkerbiddle.com/insights/publications/2019/12/congress-finally-passes-the-secure-act
https://www.barrons.com/articles/navigating-the-secure-act-what-retirement-savers-need-to-know-to-optimize-their-401-k-s-and-iras-51576886142?mod=hp_LEAD_3 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/12-23-19_Navigating_the_Secure_Act_What_Retirement_Savers_Need_To_Know_To_Otimize_Their_401ks_And_IRAS.pdf)
https://www.fool.com/retirement/general/2014/08/31/5-retirement-quotes-to-make-you-a-smarter-investor.aspx