The road to recovery is slow and bumpy.

Last week, we learned that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as a new wave of COVID-19 surged across the United States, reported The Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, increased by 2 percent annualized in the third quarter.

Consumer spending dropped sharply during the period. The change may reflect the limited availability of goods due to supply-chain issues, a reluctance to pay higher prices, or a drop in disposable personal income. Jeff Cox of CNBC reported:

“Spending for goods tumbled 9.2%, spurred by a 26.2% plunge in expenditures on longer-lasting goods like appliances and autos, while services spending increased 7.9%, a reduction from the 11.5% pace in [the second quarter]. The downshift came amid a 0.7% decline in disposable personal income, which fell 25.7% in [the second quarter] amid the end of government stimulus payments. The personal saving rate declined to 8.9% from 10.5%.”

Despite slower economic growth and lower consumer spending, many companies remained highly profitable during the third quarter. At the end of last week, John Butters of FactSet reported:

“At this point in time, more S&P 500 companies are beating EPS [earnings-per-share, which is a measure company profits] estimates for the third quarter than average, and beating EPS estimates by a wider margin than average…The index is now reporting the third highest (year-over-year) growth in earnings since [second quarter] 2010. Analysts also expect earnings growth of more than 20% for the fourth quarter and earnings growth of more than 40% for the full year.”

It appears that public companies remain adaptable and resilient despite the ongoing challenges created by the pandemic.

Are you ready for the November holidays? November is chock full of holidays. Thanksgiving, Veteran’s Day, Dia De Los Muertos, Diwali, Hanukkah, and Giving Tuesday are widely celebrated, and there are a significant number of less widely celebrated holidays on the calendar, too. These include:

·         World Vegan Day: Celebrating the vegan lifestyle (November 1).

·         National Sandwich Day: Celebrating all sandwiches, from peanut butter and jelly to BLTs (November 3).

·         National Stress Awareness Day: It’s a day to begin to identify, manage, and lower stress in your personal and professional lives (November 3).

·         World Tsunami Awareness Day: Within a decade, almost half of the world’s population will live in coastal areas that are vulnerable to tsunamis. The United Nations reports that having ​plans and policies in place can help manage the effects (November 5).

·         National Redhead Day: Celebrate all of the red-headed people in your life (November 5).

·         World Freedom Day: Commemorating the fall of the Berlin Wall, as well as the end of communist rule in Central and Eastern Europe (November 9).

·         Marine Corps Birthday: Celebrating the men and women who serve in the U.S. Marines (November 10).

·         World Kindness Day: Promoting the idea that kindness and compassion has the power to build and unite us (November 13).

·         National Absurdity Day: Celebrate the ridiculous, unreasonable, and crazy in everyday life and throughout history (November 20).

Here are two tree things you can talk about on National Absurdity Day: (1) Tulips were once more valuable than gold; and (2) There are almost 100 holidays in November.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd.”
—Bertrand Russell, mathematician

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2021-advance-estimate#:~:text=Gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP)%2C,services%20used%20up%20in%20production.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/us-gross-domestic-product-increases-at-2point0percent-annualized-pace-in-q3-vs-2point8percent-estimate.html
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-october-29-2021
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-sell-or-buy-now-51635552720?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/11-01-21_Barrons_There%20Are%20Hundreds%20of%20Reasons%20to%20Sell%20Dont_4.pdf)
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
https://www.calendarr.com/united-states/calendar-november-2021/
https://nationaltoday.com/day-of-the-dead/
https://nationaltoday.com/national-stress-awareness-day/
https://www.un.org/en/observances/tsunami-awareness-day
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Freedom_Day_(United_States)
https://militarybenefits.info/marine-corps-birthday/
https://inspirekindness.com/world-kindness-day
https://www.nationaldayarchives.com/day/national-absurdity-day/
https://www.yahoo.com/now/50-weird-facts-everything-181406932.html

It’s MESSI!

No, this commentary is not about Lionel Messi, the Argentine soccer phenom who is widely regarded one of the greatest footballers of all time. However, it is about something that economists say may be as rare as Messi’s talent: Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation (MESSI).

You can see why we prefer the acronym.

MESSI is a type of inflation that occurs when “strong, but cooling demand is met by constrained, but accelerating supply, leading to transitory, yet sticky inflation.”¹ The coronavirus pandemic may have produced just the right circumstances, according to Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics.

“Initially, extreme health conditions, severe social distancing measures, and unprecedented fiscal transfers to households supported a surge in spending on goods. With domestic and international supply struggling to rebound quickly and inventories being run down, prices for goods surged. Later, as the health situation improved, the re-opening of the economy led to greater demand for services which also ran into the tight supply conditions, leading to higher service sector inflation.”

The recent rapid rise of inflation has many people concerned that we may experience runaway inflation, which occurs when prices rise rapidly, or stagflation, which occurs when economic growth slows while inflation rises. Daco doesn’t believe either will prove to be the case:

“It’s not runaway inflation, and it’s certainly not stagflation…In the debate between transitory and runaway inflation, we have repeatedly said that the truth lies somewhere in the middle, with inflation likely to be ‘sticky but not oppressive.’”

The baseline view from Oxford Economics is that higher inflation will persist into the first half of 2022 before falling back to about two percent by the end of next year.

Time will tell.

What do you know about bonds? The bull market in bonds has persisted for 40 years. In September 1981, the interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was 15.8 percent. In 2020, the interest rate bottomed at 0.52 percent and has moved higher. Whether the bull market ends or continues, it’s important for investors to know bond basics. Test your knowledge of bonds by taking this brief quiz.

1.    In general, a bond is:
a.    A loan that an investor makes to a company, a government, or another organization
b.    An investment that pays a specific amount of interest over a set period of time
c.     An investment that is expected to return an investor’s principal at maturity
d.    All of the above

2.    If interest rates rise, what will typically happen to bond prices?
a.    Prices rise
b.    Prices fall
c.     Prices remain stable
d.    There is no relationship between interest rates and bond prices.

3.    Bonds are called many different names. Which of the following is not an alternative name for bonds?
a.    Fixed income
b.    Notes
c.     Equities
d.    Debt securities

4.    The interest rate on floating-rate notes adjusts as rates change. When might it be advantageous to have these bond investments in a portfolio?
a.    When interest rates fall
b.    When interest rates rise
c.     Anytime
d.    Never

If you have any questions about the quiz or about bonds and the role they play in your portfolio, give us a call.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Don’t think money does everything or you are going to end up doing everything for money.”
—Voltaire, philosopher

Answers: 1) d; 2) b; 3) c: 4) b

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://resources.oxfordeconomics.com/hubfs/It_aint_stagflation_but_it_sure_is_MESSI.pdf (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/10-25-21_Oxford%20Economics%20Research%20Briefing_1.pdf)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-is-behind-the-curve-on-countering-runaway-inflation-risks-summers-says-271634092444
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-worked-the-last-time-stagflation-reared-its-ugly-head-according-to-goldman-sachs-11634901016

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-record-high-big-tech-earnings-51634948547?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/10-25-21_Barrons_How%20the%20Dow%20Ignored%20Big%20Risks%20on%20its%20Way%20to%20a%20Record%20High_4.pdf)
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10#0
https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/types-investments/bonds/bonds-basics
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-floating/u-s-floating-rate-debt-gains-appeal-as-rate-worries-grow-idUKL1N0C445X20130313
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/money?page=2

September strikes again…

If you look back over the last 20 years, September has been the worst performing month for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to Nasdaq.

This year, the S&P 500 dropped 4.8 percent in September. That wasn’t enough to wipe out gains from earlier in the third quarter, and the Index finished the quarter slightly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index also tumbled in September. Their losses erased the previous two month’s gains, so the Dow and Nasdaq finished the quarter lower than they started it, reported Caitlin McCabe and Caitlin Ostroff of The Wall Street Journal.

Investors had a lot to consider during September and over the third quarter, including:

·         Resurgence of the coronavirus. On July 1, the seven-day moving average of coronavirus cases in the United States was about 14,500. Early September, the average had rocketed to about 170,000. By the end of September, the average was trending lower, reported the Centers for Disease Control.

One result of COVID-19 is that life expectancy at birth fell from 2019 to 2020. In the United States, life expectancy at birth has fallen by more than one year. Italy, Poland and Spain also have seen life expectancy drop by more than one year, reported The Economist. Lifespan increased in two countries: Denmark and Norway.

·         Global economic growth concerns. The resurgence of COVID-19 also dented global business executives’ confidence that the world economy will improve during the next six months, according to latest McKinsey Global Survey. While the majority (71 percent) of those surveyed said that economic conditions will improve in the coming months, the number was lower than the prior quarter’s 81 percent. Survey respondents said the top risks to economic growth were the pandemic, supply chain disruptions and inflation.

·         Supply chain disruptions. The supply chains issues created by the pandemic have not been easy to resolve. David Lynch of The Washington Post reported:

“The commercial pipeline that each year brings $1 trillion worth of toys, clothing, electronics and furniture from Asia to the United States is clogged and no one knows how to unclog it…the median cost of shipping a standard rectangular metal container from China to the West Coast of the United States hit a record $20,586, almost twice what it cost in July, which was twice what it cost in January, according to the Freightos index. Essential freight-handling equipment too often is not where it’s needed, and when it is, there aren’t enough truckers or warehouse workers to operate it.” Toward the end of September, more than 70 container ships were anchored near the West coast, waiting for a berth to open so goods could be delivered.  

·         Rising inflation. The cost of producing goods has been increasing. “The producer price index, a proxy for corporate or wholesaler costs, has risen for eight months in a row and, in August, was up 10.5% from a year earlier, the highest reading since June 1981. Compare this to the consumer price index, a proxy for realized manufacturer or retailer prices, which was up 5.3%. This 5.2-percentage-point gap is one of the largest in more than 40 years, suggesting higher costs are outpacing merchant end-prices…,” reported Lisa Shalett of Morgan Stanley. When producer costs rise faster than consumer prices, companies’ profitability may drop and that could negatively affect earnings.

·         Tightening central bank policy. The Federal Reserve is concerned about inflation, too, and is considering a move toward less accommodative monetary policy. In late September, Federal officials indicated that tapering – slowly reducing monthly purchases of securities – could begin later this year. Once purchases have ended, the Fed could begin to raise interest rates in late 2022 or 2023, depending on how the economy is growing, reported Jonnelle Marte of Reuters.

As if these issues weren’t enough, investors also had to process the potential effects of a global energy crisis, China’s regulatory crackdown, and another U.S. debt-ceiling standoff.

Can we talk? The pandemic accelerated the adoption of autonomous checkouts at retailers. Some stores have self-checkouts, while others have installed a “combination of sensors, cameras, computer vision and deep learning” that makes it possible to eliminate cashiers and checkouts entirely, reported Anna Oleksiuk on the Intellias blog.

At the other end of the shopping-experience spectrum is the “Kletskassa,” also known as the “chatty checkout,” which was implemented by a large grocery store chain in the Netherlands. It’s a checkout line that promises conversation with the cashier. 

“1.3 million people in the Netherlands are older than 75 years – and one large supermarket chain is making sure they’re not getting too lonely in their elder years. The Dutch government with its campaign, ‘One Against Loneliness,’ has galvanized organizations, towns, companies, and individuals to find solutions. The [grocery store chain]…is doing their part with its innovative chatty check outs,” reported The Good News Network.

The slower, chatty lane was developed specifically for older citizens, but may appeal to a much wider group of people on days when they have the time to engage.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“For me, I am driven by two main philosophies: know more today about the world than I knew yesterday and lessen the suffering of others. You’d be surprised how far that gets you.”
—Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/september-third-quarter-2021-review-and-outlook-2021-10-01
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-09-30-2021-11632987743 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/10-04-21_Wall%20Street%20Journal_Stocks%20End%20September%20with%20Losses_2.pdf)
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/10-04-21_CDC_Trends%20in%20Number%20of%20COVID-19%20Cases_3.pdf)
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/09/29/in-many-rich-countries-covid-19-has-slashed-life-expectancy-to-below-2015-levels (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/10-04-21_The%20Economist_In%20Many%20Rich%20Countries%20COVID-19%20Has%20Slashed%20Life%20Expectancy_4.pdf)
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/supply-chain-issues/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/10-04-21_The%20Washington%20Post_Inside%20Americas%20Broken%20Supply%20Chain_6.pdf)
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/earnings-season-cost-pressures
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-harker-says-it-will-soon-be-time-begin-tapering-bond-purchases-2021-09-29/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-today-51633076687?mod=hp_LEAD_1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/10-04-21_Barrons_The%20Down%20Climbed%2c%20Merck%20Rose_9.pdf)
https://intellias.com/autonomous-checkouts-the-future-of-retail/
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/a-checkout-line-where-slower-is-better-supermarket-jumbo/
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/philosophy?page=2

Central banks have a lot of influence on investors, markets and economies.

For the last year or so, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing $120 billion of bonds every month to ensure United States markets remained liquid and interest rates remained low during the pandemic. Last Wednesday, the Fed announced that it is ready to begin to buy fewer bonds, a process known as tapering. The Fed’s taper is expected to begin before year-end. The Fed is not expected to push interest rates higher for some time so, overall, monetary policy will continue to support economic growth.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) said it expects inflation to exceed 4 percent by the end of the year. That’s twice the BoE’s target inflation rate. After the statement was issued, one measure of investors’ expectations priced in “…a 90 percent chance that the BoE would raise rates by February [2022], up from just over 60 percent before – though some economists say this is premature given the challenges to growth,” reported David Milliken and Andy Bruce of Reuters.

Expectations that central bank policies will soon be less accommodative caused yields on 10-year government bonds in the United Kingdom and the United States to rise. “Surging long-term bond yields put an outsized dent into valuations for growth companies because those firms are valued on a relatively long-term basis,” reported Nicholas Jasinski, Jacob Sonenshine and Jack Denton of Barron’s.”

While rising yields can negatively affect equity valuations, they may not hurt share prices if company earnings continue to grow and investors’ appetite for equities remains strong, reported Sean Markowicz of Schroders.

Concerns about less accommodative monetary policy may be less pressing than worries about the health of China’s financial system. The People’s Bank of China injected cash into its banking system again last week to reassure investors after a large Chinese company missed a bond payment deadline, reported Anshuman Daga, Andrew Galbraith and Tom Westbrook of U.S. News & World Report.

After a sharp sell-off early last week, major U.S. stock indices finished the week flat to slightly higher, reported Barron’s. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose.

Banned in China. China has been trying to limit cryptocurrencies for a long time without much success. In 2019, cryptocurrency trading was banned; however, the practice persisted. Earlier this year, the Chinese government restricted banks and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions and warned buyers they would have no protection if they traded cryptocurrencies, reported the BBC.

Last week, China banned all cryptocurrency transactions and announced that ten regulatory agencies will work together to enforce the ban, reported Alun John, Samuel Shen, and Tom Wilson of Reuters.

Cryptocurrency is “any form of currency that only exists digitally, that usually has no central issuing or regulating authority but instead uses a decentralized system to record transactions and manage the issuance of new units, and that relies on cryptography to prevent counterfeiting and fraudulent transactions,” according to Merriam Webster.

China also banned cryptocurrency mining. Unlike many types of money, cryptocurrency is not issued by a nation’s central bank. It is mined using an energy-intensive process that “relies on many distributed computers verifying and checking transactions on a giant shared ledger known as the blockchain,” reported the BBC. Prior to the ban, China was one of the world’s largest mining centers because of its relatively low energy costs and inexpensive computer hardware.

The ban doesn’t mean China won’t have digital currency. China’s central bank is developing an official digital currency that is being tested now and is expected to be introduced more widely next year. “The ban on crypto appears designed to build support for the official digital currency while signaling to Chinese residents that financial transactions must be traceable and won’t be tolerated on decentralized blockchains,” reported Daren Fonda and Joe Woelfel of Barron’s.”

The United States also is considering how to regulate cryptocurrencies.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.”
—Warren Buffet, investor

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/23/heres-what-will-happen-when-the-feds-tapering-starts-and-why-you-should-care.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-keeps-interest-rate-unchanged-01-2021-09-23/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-today-51632471196?mod=hp_LEAD_3 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/092721_Barrons_The%20Dow%20Held%20Steady%2c%20Bitcoin%20Fell_3.pdf)
https://www.schroders.com/en/media-relations/newsroom/insights/what-do-rising-bond-yields-mean-for-the-us-stock-market/
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-09-23/china-evergrande-bondholders-in-limbo-over-debt-resolution
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-news-federal-reserve-51632527337?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/092721_Barrons_The%20Stock%20Market%20Survived%20China%20Evergrand_6.pdf)
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58678907
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-central-bank-vows-crackdown-cryptocurrency-trading-2021-09-24/
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/cryptocurrency
https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-central-bank-bans-crypto-bitcoin-ethereum-prices-51632477760?mod=hp_LEAD_1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/092721_Barrons_Crypto%20Crumbles.%20What%20Chinas%20Ban%20Means%20for%20Digital%20Currencies_11.pdf)
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/23/us/politics/cryptocurrency-regulators-rules.html (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/092721_New%20York%20Times_Regulators%20Racing%20Toward%20First%20Major%20Rules%20on%20Crypto_12.pdf)
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/warren_buffett_149678

In recent weeks, bullish sentiment has drifted lower like sediment settling after a storm. 

Every month, Bank of America (BofA) surveys global asset managers. The most recent survey, which was conducted in early September, showed that fewer managers remain optimistic about prospects for global economic growth (13 percent) or corporate profitability (12 percent). That’s half the number in the previous survey and the lowest percent since April 2020, reported Katie Martin of Financial Times.

When optimism declines, managers typically retreat to safer harbors and portfolio exposure to stock declines. That hasn’t happened this time. About one-half of the global asset managers surveyed in early September by BofA were overweight stock. Cash allocations were rising slowly and there appeared to be little appetite for government bonds, according to Financial Times.

The BofA survey also reported on the concerns of global asset managers. “Inflation is the biggest tail risk for markets, followed by taper tantrum, and COVID-19 Delta variant,” reported Bloomberg. Tail risk is the chance that a loss will result from an unusual event.

Rapidly changing conditions in China also may be a concern for investors. The Chinese government’s recent regulatory enforcement actions during 2021 have negatively affected market values of companies in education, technology, entertainment and home building sectors.

Last week, a number of financial bloggers and commentators were arrested in China, and many financial websites and blogs were scrubbed from China’s social media platforms. The change could help reduce fraud with the unwelcome side effect of eliminating non-government viewpoints, reported Financial Times.

 “The uncertainty hovering over China now includes threats of tougher regulation, higher tax rates, greater charitable giving and government influencing business decisions,” reported Financial Times. A China expert cited by the newspaper commented, “‘All of that just leads to the fundamental question of what happens to that excess return that you used to be able to get as an investor in China, and how much is that disappearing or eroding in this new environment…’”

Uncertainty also is an issue in the United States where another debt-ceiling crisis appears to be looming. Jack Hough of Barron’s explained:

“As rising partisan rancor has turned everyday legislating into a death struggle, politicians have grown more willing to use the debt ceiling as leverage. A standoff in 2011 resulted in a credit downgrade to the U.S. government, a brief but angry slide in stocks, and a temporary move higher for bond yields, which accountants later said cost the U.S. government billions of dollars in added interest. The outcome was a shaky compromise, which fell apart in 2013, but Congress hadn’t yet regained its appetite for another round of fiscal chicken, so it suspended the ceiling. There have since been many extensions, the last of which expired at the end of July. The Treasury is now reaching under its couch cushions for funds. Without action from Congress, America will default by mid-October.”

Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished lower, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries moved higher.

Where are you? If you were virtually dropped into another country, do you think you would recognize where you were? 

In 2013, Swedish information technology consultant Anton Wallén created a game around an internet company’s street-view maps. Players are dropped into a street view within a country and must identify the location. The person who guesses correctly the most times, scores the most points and wins.⁸

The game also provides data about which parts of the world are most easily recognized. The Economist used information from the online geography quiz to build a ‘recognizability index.’ The index evaluates which places are most recognizable and who recognizes them most easily. The newspaper balanced correct guesses against incorrect guesses and determined:

·         The most readily identifiable countries are Japan (64 percent correct guesses, 9 percent wrong guesses) and the United States (79 percent correct guesses, 40 percent wrong guesses), followed by Russia, Italy, Brazil and Britain.

·         The most misidentified country was the United States. “…18% of players who reckoned they had been dropped in America were actually in Australia. Spain and Mexico were also frequently mixed up. Not all of the guesses made sense: at least one person mistook Luxembourg for Mongolia.”

·         The people who are best at identifying geographic locations live in Germany, Switzerland and France.

·         The people who are worst at identifying geographic locations live in Turkey, Russia and America.

There is an important caveat that accompanies these findings. Not every country or street in the world is included the street-view maps used in the game. For example, coverage of Germany is limited because of privacy concerns and significant parts of China are missing.

 Weekly Focus – Think About It
“What an amateur is, is a lover of a subject. I’m a lover of facts. The fact is the savior, as long as you don’t jam it into some preconceived pattern. The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance – it is the illusion of knowledge.”
—Daniel J. Boorstin, Historian and 12th Librarian of the U.S. Congress   

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/03285246-065e-4cbc-b2b2-eedb3d06ccb1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09-20-21_Financial%20Times_Investors%20Rein%20In%20Risk_1.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-14/bofa-survey-shows-rare-disconnect-between-stocks-and-economy (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09-20-21_Bloomberg_Fund%20Managers%20Sour%20on%20Stocks_2.pdf)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tailrisk.asp
https://www.ft.com/content/d5725cb3-169c-442f-953e-077bb926f4c0 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09-20-21_Financial%20Times_Financial%20Blogger%20Crackdown%20Leaves%20China%20Investors%20Scrabbling%20for%20Data_4.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/debt-ceiling-2021-reconciliation-vote-politics-51631916808 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09-20-21_Barrons_Fiscal%20Chicken%20Anyone_5.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-falls-because-theres-something-scarier-than-taxes-tapers-and-contagion-51631925838?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09-20-21_Barrons_The%20Stock%20Market%20Dropped%20Because%20Theres%20Something%20Scarier%20Than%20Taxes_6.pdf)​
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
https://www.geoguessr.com
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/09/17/which-is-the-most-recognisable-country (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09-20-21_The%20Economist_Which%20Is%20the%20Most%20Recognizable%20Country_9.pdf)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/1984/01/29/the-6-oclock-scholar/eed58de4-2dcb-47d2-8947-b0817a18d8fe/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09-20-21_Washington%20Post_The%206%20o%20Clock%20Scholar_10.pdf

The Delta variant could take a toll on economic growth.

There was some good news last week. The 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases in the United States declined. The bad news was that the rate of infection remained about 99 percent higher than it was one year ago.

As Delta variant infections surged across the United States, expectations for economic growth dropped more sharply than anticipated. Lisa Beilfuss of Barron’s reported on changes to third-quarter forecasts for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

“Goldman Sachs cut its forecast to 3.5% from 5.25%, Oxford Economics revised its call to 2.7% from 6.5%, and Morgan Stanley lowered its estimate to 2.9% from 6.5%. That’s as the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts 3.7% for the quarter, down from 5.3% at the start of the month,” Beilfuss wrote in Barron’s.

Economists aren’t the only ones revising expectations. Some companies have cautioned that their revenue and earnings expectations were too high. Several airlines reported that cancellations have increased and ticket purchases have declined, which will impact the companies’ financial performance. In addition, some manufacturers indicated that unresolved supply chain issues and the high cost of raw materials will affect their performance for the quarter, reported Yacob Reyes and Sam Ro of Axios.

A chief investment officer cited by Axios said it’s unlikely that many more companies will cut their revenue or earnings forecasts; however, “…he does expect fewer companies to announce better-than-expected earnings when they announce Q3 results.” During the second quarter of 2021, 87 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reported better-than-expected earnings.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices trended lower, reported Al Root of Barron’s. The yield on 10-year Treasuries also finished the week higher.

 Upside-down rhinoceri and other improbable stuff. It’s September and paper airplanes were flying across screens at the 31^st First Annual Ig^® Nobel Prize virtual ceremony.

The Ig Nobels recognize the unusual and celebrate the imaginative to rouse interest in science, medicine and technology. Every year, 10 prizes are awarded for research that makes people laugh and also makes them think. Commemorative awards are given to the winners by actual Nobel laureates. This year’s outstanding research included:

Biology prize: Susanne Schötz, Robert Eklund and Joost van de Weijer received an Ig Nobel for their work in cat acoustics. The introduction to “A Comparative Acoustic Analysis of Purring in Four Cats” explains, “The domestic cat is one of the most popular pet animals in the world, and virtually everyone is familiar with its trademark ‘purring’ sound. Contrary to what might be believed, it is not known exactly how purring is produced, and there is a surprising lack of studies of purring, even descriptive.” The scientists have also studied cat chirping, chattering, trilling, tweedling, murmuring, meowing, moaning, squeaking, hissing, yowling, howling and growling.

 Ecology prize: Did you know the United Kingdom spends almost 70 million euros each year cleaning chewing gum residue from pavement? In addition to providing that bit of trivia, Ig Nobel winners Leila Satari, Alba Guillén, Àngela Vidal-Verdú and Manuel Porcar offered insight to “…the microbial content of [improperly discarded] chewing gums sampled in different locations worldwide as well as the distribution of bacteria depending on the depth (surface, intermediate and bottom layers of the residue).” The findings may have implications relevant to forensics, contagious disease and cleaning up chewing gum.

Chemistry prize: “Proof of Concept Study: Testing Human Volatile Organic Compounds as Tools for Age Classification of Films,” which has 10 contributing authors, examined a new method for rating movies: Measuring the emissions of humans watching the movies. “Humans emit numerous volatile organic compounds through breath and skin. The nature and rate of these emissions are affected by various factors including emotional state. Previous measurements of [these emissions] in a cinema have shown that certain chemicals are reproducibly emitted by audiences reacting to events in a particular film.”

Transportation prize: Have you ever wondered whether hanging a rhinoceros upside down would affect its health, a team from Cornell University has the answer. These researchers suspended a dozen tranquilized rhinos upside-down for 10 minutes to simulate a common form of transfer used by wildlife conservationists in Africa. The finding, published in the Journal of Wildlife Diseases, was that it may be safer to transport a rhino upside down rather than on its side.

Prizes also were awarded in the fields of entomology, physics, kinetics, medicine, economics and peace.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the most discoveries, is not ‘Eureka!’ but ‘That’s funny…’”
—Isaac Asimov, Biochemistry professor and author

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.
* This newsletter and commentary expressed should not be construed as investment advice.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this e-mail with “Unsubscribe” in the subject.

Investment advice offered through Research Financial Strategies, a registered investment advisor.

Sources:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09-13-21_Washington%20Post_Denmark%20lifts%20all%20coronavirus%20restrictions_1.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/heres-an-inconvenient-truth-the-growth-slowdown-goes-beyond-the-delta-variant-51631307629?mod=hp_columnists
https://www.axios.com/airlines-covid-ticket-sales-projections-43bac1f0-3bfa-43b0-b06f-01aeb2afecf1.html (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09-13-21_Barrons_Heres%20an%20Inconvenient%20Truth_3.pdf)
https://www.axios.com/ppg-industries-supply-chain-earnings-disruption-7263631e-1a34-4745-8fe5-0538fcc1b771.html
https://www.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_091021.pdf
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-selloffs-need-a-trigger-heres-what-could-cause-the-next-one-51631322248?refsec=the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2021/09_13_21_Barrons_A%20Stock%20Market%20Selloff%20Needs%20a%20Trigger_6.pdf)
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
https://www.improbable.com/2021-ceremony/ig-nobel-prizes/
https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:539090/FULLTEXT01.pdf
https://www.improbable.com
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73913-4
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0203044
https://bioone.org/journals/journal-of-wildlife-diseases/volume-57/issue-2/2019-08-202/THE-PULMONARY-AND-METABOLIC-EFFECTS-OF-SUSPENSION-BY-THE-FEET/10.7589/2019-08-202.short
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/isaac_asimov_109758​