This Memorial Day…

Memorial Day is a time for Americans to honor and remember those who lost their lives while serving in the armed forces. Veterans will think back on the men and women who served alongside them who gave the ultimate sacrifice for their country and know that we honor and remember them.

Let’s not forget the essential meaning of the holiday. The service and sacrifice of these men and women should always be remembered — on this day and every day.

Schwab’s State of Health

Are you concerned about the potential banking crisis?  We are happy to announce that Schwab, our custodian for the majority of our investment accounts, is in great shape and is growing!

Schwab Reports Monthly Activity Highlights

05/12/2023

WESTLAKE, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)– The Charles Schwab Corporation released its Monthly Activity Report today. Company highlights for the month of April 2023 include:

  • Total net new assets brought to the company by new and existing clients in April 2023 totaled $13.6 billion, while core net new assets equaled negative $2.3 billion. These flows reflect client cash disbursements during tax season.
  • Total client assets were $7.63 trillion as of month-end April, up 5% from April 2022 and up 1% compared to March 2023.
  • Active brokerage accounts reached 34.2 million in April, up 1% from April 2022 and flat compared to March 2023.

Commentary from the CFO

Chief Financial Officer Peter Crawford commented, “As previously noted in my commentary published on May 5, 2023, April marked the third consecutive month of deceleration in the daily average pace of cash realignment within bank sweep deposits and Bank Deposit Account (BDA) balances. This trend has continued into May, with the month-to-date pace improving nearly 50% versus April. We remain confident that client cash realignment activity will abate during 2023 – helping client cash on the balance sheet resume growing in proportion with the growth in total client assets over time.”

Read the entire article:  https://pressroom.aboutschwab.com/press-releases/press-release/2023/Schwab-Reports-Monthly-Activity-Highlights-5db736e73/default.aspx

Inflation Is Trending Lower. Now What?

The December inflation report had some encouraging news. It showed that consumer prices trended lower for the month, but more importantly, it confirmed that overall prices have been trending lower for the past six months.

Now the ball is in the Fed’s court. The Fed Governors need to determine how much further they need to go with higher interest rates, which have been used to slow the economy and tame inflation.

After the inflation report was released, traders quickly adjusted their outlook for what the Fed will do next.

In the table, you can see the traders now see short-term rates reaching a high of between 4.75% and 5% in 2023. Late last year, some feared that the “terminal” rate would be over 5%. Today, rates are between 4.25% and 4.5%

After reviewing inflation and other economic data, if the Fed concludes that it’s time to pivot on monetary policy, that decision would be expected to influence both the stock and bond markets. I’m keeping an eye on what’s going on with the Fed and will continue to provide you updates.

Happy Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving is a time to appreciate what we value most, a time to cherish the many gifts we have, and the people that make life special. We can also be thankful that we live in a great country known for its prosperity and abundance.
As you gather to enjoy some good food and good company this holiday, I will be thinking of you. I’m thankful that you have selected us as the financial professional to help you plan your future. We wish you the very best this holiday.

The World’s Chip Crisis

This is the most important article you will read this year.  It is the details behind what we wrote about in Tuesday’s email.  China wants Taiwan.  Not to “reunite with the motherland”, and all the other BS reasons they dream up. There is one reason, and only one.  China wants the TSCM foundry.

The chart below is very scary.  Look at the comparison between semiconductor production by country from 1990 to 2020.  43% comes from Taiwan and South Korea. These chips are used in  the production for everything from computers, cell phones, defense weaponry to cars. Wouldn’t be a problem except that China wants to invade Taiwan, and North Korea uses South Korea as a test site for nukes!!

Also, in the detail you will read the other scary stat: TSCM is responsible for 20% of all worldwide production and 92% of the advanced chips.  I just don’t understand why the White House, the defense intelligence agencies, and the S&P 500 companies don’t have a high level working relationship to forecast these highly important manufacturing glitches that put the national defense and security of Americans first.  Obviously, China does!  You don’t need furniture from Vietnam.  But life as you know it is OVER WITHOUT SEMICONDUCTOR CHIPS!

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