The Markets

U.S. stocks thrive amid turmoil.

The performance of the U.S. stock market is striking. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 closed at a record high for the 57^th time this year, reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. Here are some of the notable factors that sent stocks higher last week:

Political upheaval overseas. A declaration and cancellation of martial law in South Korea and the toppling of the French government roiled financial markets overseas, making United States markets attractive. “The political chaos spanning Seoul to Paris this week is reinforcing why many investors have chosen to stick to American markets,” reported Simon Kennedy and Phil Serafino of Bloomberg.

A powerful technology rally. Spending and excitement around the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) continue to delight investors. Both the communication services and information technology sectors are expected to report double-digit earnings growth during the last three months of 2024, reported John Butters of Factset. 

Rising company profits have been driven by higher spending. “While the ROI [return on investment] of any given AI project remains uncertain, one thing is becoming clear: CIOs [chief investment officers] will be spending a whole lot more on the technology in the years ahead. Research firm IDC projects worldwide spending on technology to support AI strategies will reach $337 billion in 2025—and more than double to $749 billion by 2028,” reported Paula Rooney of CIO.

Continued U.S. economic strength. Employers added 227,000 new jobs in November. That was well above the 200,000 forecasted, reported Barron’s. Stocks rose on the news, and so did expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates again at its December meeting. Lower rates are typically good for companies because they often lower the cost of borrowing and lead to higher spending.

By the end of the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes were higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished lower as it has less exposure to technology stocks, according to Barron’s, and more significant exposure to a large health insurance company that saw its stock price fall sharply after the assassination of its chief executive officer last week, reported Caroline Valetkevitch of Reuters. Treasury bonds gained last week, too, as yields moved lower on expectations of a Fed rate cut.

When any asset class experiences significant gains during the year, it’s important to review your investment allocations and make adjustments to maintain the risk profile that makes you most comfortable. Rebalancing also helps investors follow an important investment strategy: buy low and sell high.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

‘TIS THE SEASON FOR CYBERCRIME. While scammers and cybercriminals are always on the take, people tend to be particularly vulnerable to fraud amid the whirlwind of winter holiday shopping, giving, and travel. In a recent survey, 82 percent of participants reported they had experienced online scams from “encountering a deceptive advertisement to receiving a fake shipment notice or request from a fraudulent charity,” according to Jennifer Sauer of AARP Research.

During 2023, losses from internet crime totaled $12.5 billion. It’s a staggering sum—and may wildly underrepresent the actual amount taken. The FBI’s 2023 Internet Crime Report stated, “…when the FBI recently infiltrated the Hive ransomware group’s infrastructure, we found that only about 20 [percent] of Hive’s victims reported to law enforcement.”

Common 2024 holiday scams
In 2024, cybercriminals have become more aggressive and more devious, according to the FBI. The top schemes this holiday season include scammers:

• Posting websites and social media ads offering goods at unusually low prices,
• Soliciting donations for fake charities,
• Encouraging “investment” through phony cryptocurrency platforms,
• Selling fake gift cards to be used for donations or time-sensitive purchases, and
• Offering fake gift cards and event tickets on social media to steal personal data.

Here’s how to protect yourself
Being aware of the risks is the first step toward protecting yourself from cybercrime. The FBI and Lars Daniel of Forbes offered tips for protecting yourself this holiday season. They include:

• Resist temptation. Do not click on links received via e-mail, text, or messaging apps. If you receive a communication that a delivery has been delayed or there was an issue with a payment or something else has happened, don’t click on the link provided. Go to the company’s website or app to check.
• Verify before sharing, donating, or paying. If you receive a communication from a charity or financial institution you know, take time to verify the contact is truly from the organization. Cybercriminals can fake real numbers on caller ID and send messages that lead you to fake websites. One way to verify is to contact the organization directly with a phone number or email found on its official website, an account statement, or the back of a credit or debit card.

 Be wary of urgent requests. Holidays are often pressure-filled. Scammers often create a false sense of urgency, encouraging people to act without thinking carefully. Before you respond to an urgent and unexpected request, take time to think, research, and verify. Also, remember that government and law enforcement agencies will never ask that payments be made over the phone, via email, or through gift card purchases.

Any time you’re asked to share personal information, think carefully about who is asking and whether they should have the information. If you have any questions about how to protect yourself this holiday season, please get in touch.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“We are all now connected by the Internet, like neurons in a giant brain.”
—Stephen Hawking, physicist and cosmologist

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-05/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?itm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-12-04/south-korea-france-make-the-case-for-sticking-to-us-markets

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_120624A.pdf [Page 10]

https://www.cio.com/article/3601606/cios-to-spend-ambitiously-on-ai-in-2025-and-beyond.html

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.html

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/november-jobs-report-data-today?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-120624/card/tech-stocks-leave-the-dow-in-the-dust-iTLLzgA626V7ivhHLcxL?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-stall-after-wall-streets-record-high-closing-2024-12-05/#:~:text=UnitedHealth’s%20(UNH.N)%20%2C,opens%20new%20tab%20fell%201.1%25.

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202412

https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/work-finances-retirement/fraud-consumer-protection/holiday-shopping-scams-2024/

https://www.ic3.gov/AnnualReport/Reports/2023_IC3Report.pdf [Pages 3 and 7]

https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/sanfrancisco/news/fbi-san-francisco-warns-of-holiday-scams-targeting-shoppers-and-donors

https://www.forbes.com/sites/larsdaniel/2024/12/03/fbi-warning-online-holiday-shopping-scams-could-ruin-your-2024-season/

https://parade.com/living/stephen-hawking-quotes

The Markets

Not one, but two!

United States stock markets are serving another cup of cheer this year. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index returned more than more than 24 percent in 2023. This year, it was up 26.5 percent through the end of November.

It’s possible 2024 will end up in Wall Street’s bull market hall of fame, wrote Jan-Patrick Barnert of Bloomberg, because the year-to-date return of the S&P 500 ranks among its best performances of this century.

“Not many expected another blistering rally fueled by a handful of tech titans and market sentiment so bullish that one risk event after another got cleared without a scratch… Market swings were benign, with only one big valley of tears: a summer pullback that culminated in a small selloff around early August. The drop lasted for just less than a month and failed to cross the threshold of 10 [percent], typically seen as a correction.”

On a relative basis, U.S. stock markets have significantly outperformed stock markets elsewhere. Consider the performance of a few non-U.S. indexes through Thanksgiving.

Over the year, the number of U.S. stocks participating in the rally rose. “The rally is broadening out…more stocks are advancing than declining. Typically, that phenomenon bodes well for the entire stock market. It’s a sign of better market breadth, meaning that the major indexes aren’t being led by just a small handful of stocks,” reported Paul R. La Monica of Barron’s.

However, La Monica also cautioned against becoming complacent, “…given how long it has been since Wall Street has faced any significant obstacle, it isn’t entirely clear what might happen if market or economic conditions suddenly head south.”

Last week, stocks jolted up and down as investors responded to data about political appointments, tariffs, and inflation data. By the end of the week, major U.S. indices were higher. Treasury bonds gained, too, as yields moved lower after president-elect Donald Trump nominated hedge-fund billionaire Scott Bessent to be U.S. Treasury Secretary. Many believe Bessent could be a moderating influence when it comes to taxes, tariffs, and the deficit, reported Mitchell Hartman of Marketplace.  

THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT TARIFFS. Last week, president-elect Donald Trump took to social media, promising to increase tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. One result was that internet searches related to the term “tariffs” increased sharply. These searches included:

• How do tariffs work?
• What is Trump’s tariff plan?
• Things to buy before tariffs
• Tariffs for dummies

Here are a few answers to common questions about tariffs:

What are tariffs? Tariffs are a form of tax that one country assesses on materials, parts, and products imported from another country.

What do tariffs do? In theory, raising prices on foreign goods will protect U.S. companies and jobs by encouraging Americans to buy goods that are produced in the United States. It doesn’t always work that way because the country the U.S. imposes tariffs on is likely to respond in kind, adding tariffs to U.S. materials, parts, and products. A study of the 2018-19 trade war between the U.S., China and other nations found:

“The trade-war has not to date provided economic help to the U.S. heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered U.S. employment in newly protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory U.S. agricultural subsidies.”

 Who pays for tariffs? The cost of a tariff is paid by U.S. businesses and U.S. consumers. “The importer who brings the product into the country—be it a car or an avocado—is responsible for the tariff at the port of entry. Customs officials collect the tax and the money goes to the U.S. Treasury. The importer can pass the cost of the tariff along in the form of higher prices to the consumer. Or, in some cases, the manufacturer or importer may choose to absorb some or all of the cost, taking a hit to the bottom line,” reported Tim Smart of U.S. News & World Report.

How much will tariffs raise prices? After the president-elect announced his tariff intentions, Barron’s estimated “that a 10 [percent] tariff could raise the cost of a new car in the U.S. by 4 [percent] or 5 [percent] without any adjustments from auto makers. That was based [on] imports and where parts and cars are manufactured in North America. A 25 [percent] tariff on Canada and Mexico implies the price jump would be closer to 8 [percent],” reported Al Root of Barron’s.

 When countries fight by raising tariffs, it’s called a trade war.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
—Karl Kristian Steincke, Danish politician

Sources:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns

https://www.barrons.com/market-data (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Barrons_Data_2.pdf)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/the-vintage-year-for-us-stock-markets-that-few-people-expected (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Bloomberg_A%20Vintage%20Year_3.pdf)

https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_MSCI_End%20of%20Day%20Index%20Data%20Search_4.pdf)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-rally-tech-nvidia-rates-304f6048 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Barrons_Stock%20Market%20Isnt%20Just%20Big%20Tech_5.pdf)

https://www.marketplace.org/2024/11/25/scott-bessent-trump-treasury-secretary-bond-rates-yield-t-note/

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/what-is-a-tariff-194059448.html

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US&q=what%20is%20a%20tariff&hl=en-US;  https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US&q=who%20pays%20tariffs&hl=en-US; and https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=tarrifs&date=today%203-m&geo=US (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Google%20Trends_8.pdf)

https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/help-heartland-employment-and-electoral-effects-trump-tariffs-united-states-0

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-11-27/what-is-a-tariff-and-who-pays-it-spoiler-alert-you-will

https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-tariffs-ford-gm-stock-030da5ef?mod=article_inline (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Barrons_Why%20GM%20Stock%20Is%20Getting%20Crushed%20by%20Trump%20Tariff%20Threats_11.pdf)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade-war.asp

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/

The Markets

The post-election rally resumed.

Investors shook off concerns about interest rates and inflation, and U.S. stocks climbed higher last week. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index gained every day last week, and the rally wasn’t limited to a few popular stocks: 425 of the companies in the Index finished the week higher, according to Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.

“Beneficiaries of the incoming administration’s looser regulation and business-friendly stance put forth strong showings this week. Stocks gained while [cryptocurrency] crushed doubters and the dollar extended gains into an eighth week, the currency’s longest run of the year. Blue chips and small caps led Friday’s equities advance as this year’s big tech winners struggled to gain ground,” reported Cristin Flanagan of Bloomberg.

It has been a great year to own U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is up more than 25 percent so far this year, performing significantly better than major indexes in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets, reported Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters. The catch is that markets are trading at heady valuations.

“…The broadening market can’t hide just how expensive stocks have become. The S&P 500 trades at 22.1 times 12-month forward earnings…the highest since 2020, when it hit 22.9 times. To see multiples meaningfully higher than that, one has to go back to the dot-com era, when the index traded at more than 25 times earnings,” reported Sonenshine of Barron’s.

Not everyone had an appetite for risk last week. The price of gold, which many investors consider to be a safe haven when markets are volatile, rose amid escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war, reported Yvonne Yue Li of Bloomberg.

Major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher. Treasury yields were mixed last week with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moving lower over the week lower and the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury moving higher.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

HOW TO HAVE AN ESTATE OR TAG SALE. Estate and tag sales can be emotional experiences. Usually, these sales are scheduled around major life changes such as the need to:

• Relocate or downsize,
• Move to independent or assisted living, or
• Settle the estate of a loved one.

Organizing a sale is hard work, and parting with your belongings or those of a loved one is never easy, especially when they have sentimental value. That may be why many people opt to hire an estate planning company to manage these sales. The cost to do so is usually 30 percent to 40 percent of sale proceeds. However, estate sale companies “typically provide a gross sales minimum. This means that the total value of all the items to be sold must meet or exceed that value,” reported Doug Luftman of Trust & Will.

The other option is to organize and hold the sale yourself. If you choose that route, here are three tips that can help make an estate sale successful.

1. Hire an appraiser. As the Antiques Roadshow demonstrates, it is difficult to know the value of some items. Undervaluation applies to antiques and everyday items. For instance, the portable ultrasound your uncle bought when he was recovering from surgery, which has been gathering dust on the shelf ever since, may be worth a whole lot more than you think it is. An appraiser can help ensure you don’t undervalue sales items, reported Heidi Mitchell in AARP Magazine.

2. Promote the sale. Posting a hand-written sign near your sale site is unlikely to attract the number of buyers you need. Luftman recommended advertising your estate sale on social media sites and online marketplaces, as well as local newspapers. Mitchell suggested that the advertisements include hashtags for applicable key words. These may include #high-end, #designer, #one-of-a-kind, and #collectors.

3. Choose payment options carefully. Some estate sale shoppers will have cash, others will want to pay digitally. Think carefully about what types of payment you will accept and the tools you will need to accept them, reported Patrick Villanova and Arturo Conde in SmartAsset. For instance, you will need to have change and a lock box on hand for cash transactions, and an app on a phone or tablet for digital transactions.

Organizing an estate sale on your own saves on cost, but requires planning and coordination, as well as a team to oversee the sale. Outsourcing the sale has a higher cost, but requires less time, effort, and emotional stress. Everyone needs to decide which approach is the best one for their situation.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Estate- and tag-sale companies mainly deal with two generations: homeowners born during the Great Depression…and boomers looking to pare down. The groups have different reputations in the business. Depression-era homeowners are known for their pack-rat behavior, and the boomers are known for just having a lot of really nice stuff—the result of having lived through the perfect time in history to consume amply in early adulthood.”
—Lizzie Feidelson, The New Yorker

The Markets

The United States stock market changed course.

Last week, the strength of the United States economy slowed investors’ roll. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell told business leaders in Dallas, Texas, that the performance of the United States economy has been “remarkably good,” better than any major economy in the world, which gives the Fed “the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”

Powell’s comments caused investors to reassess the likely pace of rate cuts. As they did, the probability of a December rate cut fell sharply, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The likelihood that the Fed may lower rates more slowly than expected roiled markets. Lu Wang, Isabelle Lee, and Emily Graffeo of Bloomberg reported, “With the world’s most important central banker in no hurry to ease monetary policy thanks to a still-robust labor market and strong economic data, bond yields once again rose and dragged stocks lower in their wake. Down 2 [percent] over five sessions, the S&P 500 erased half of its trough-to-peak gains since the election. Combined with losses in corporate credit and commodities, the week rounded out a pan-asset retreat that by one measure was the worst in 13 months.”

Investors’ changing outlook was shaped by other factors, too. These included:

• Elevated stock valuations. Bella Albrecht of Morningstar reported, “The U.S. stock market is trading at an 11 [percent] premium to its fair value estimate.” The data reflected share prices on November 13, which was midway through last week.
• The risk of inflation rising again. Many economists believe the incoming administration’s spending and tax policies have the potential to reignite inflation, which could lead the Fed to reassess monetary policy.
• A disrupting cabinet nomination. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services rattled healthcare and consumer staples sectors of the market. “Shares of biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies fell, with the S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals index down about 2 [percent]. Shares of packaged food and beverage giants…also declined,” reported Samuel Indyk and Ludwig Burger of Reuters.

By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indices were down. U.S. bond markets continued to be wary of tariffs and inflation, lifting the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury to 4.5 percent. By week’s end, though, the 10-year Treasury yield had settled at 4.3 percent, reported Liz Capo McCormick of Bloomberg.

THANKSGIVING ABUNDANCE. Turkey, mashed potatoes, and cranberry sauce have been on the Thanksgiving table for a long time. In many homes, though, the holiday meal has evolved to include regional dishes, cultural treats, and family favorites. People who responded to a social media post asking about unique Thanksgiving dishes reported that their meals include:

• Sliced tomatoes, cucumbers, olives, and onions with oil and vinegar,
• Chorizo cornbread with jalapeños,
• Sashimi and grilled salmon collar,
• Cranberries, grapes, walnuts and whipped cream salad,
• Quinoa with roasted delicata squash, kale, and pistachios,
• Creamed pearl onions,
• Spinach casserole,
• Twice baked potatoes,
• Shrimp and mirlitons (pear-shaped squash), and many other dishes.

 Another reason Thanksgiving meals have evolved is dietary preferences. Some families include one or more vegetarian or vegan members, and others are eating less meat for health reasons.

Of course, grocery stores have played a significant role in the evolution of Thanksgiving dinner. “The average grocery store today has 300,000+ [items in stock], nearly eight times more than the average store of the 1970s,” reported Andy Nelson in Supermarket Perimeter. Having access to a wider variety of ingredients makes it possible to prepare holiday feasts that make your taste buds happy.

What is your family’s favorite Thanksgiving dish?

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The first Thanksgiving meal in Plymouth probably had little in common with today’s traditional holiday spread. Although turkeys were indigenous, there’s no record of a big roasted bird at the feast. The Wampanoag brought deer and there would have been lots of local seafood (mussels, lobster, bass) plus the fruits of the pilgrim harvest, including pumpkin. No mashed potatoes, though. Potatoes had only recently been shipped back to Europe from South America.”
—Origins of Thanksgiving National Holiday, History.com

The Markets

Stock markets celebrated the results of the presidential election. Bond markets were less enthusiastic.

Last week, United States stock markets rallied, and the U.S. dollar gained against other currencies, following the presidential election. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s Fear gauge, also moved lower after concerns about a long wait for election results were quelled by a swift result, reported Alexandra Semenova of Bloomberg.

“…the [stock] markets roared in approval of this Trumpvember surprise…Yes, expect tax cuts, less regulation, fewer guardrails, and a government no longer picking winners and losers (except for tariffs), all reasons why investors perceive the incipient environment to be advantageous. And yet, with all the dancing, dancing, dancing in the streets, note that this new freedom could be accompanied by greater risk in the capital markets,” reported Andy Serwer of Barron’s.

The bond market’s response to the election was measured. The Federal Reserve (Fed) began lowering the federal funds rate in September. Typically, Fed rate cuts lead to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which supports economic growth. However, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which is a benchmark for mortgage rates, corporate bonds, and other loan rates, has trended higher since September as strong economic data caused the market to rethink its expectations for future rate cuts.

Now, the bond market is evaluating future rate cuts in the context of the new administration’s policies. “…the outlook for further rate cuts has been clouded by expectations that key elements of Trump’s economic platform such as tax cuts and tariffs will lead to faster growth and higher consumer prices. That could make the Fed wary of risking an inflationary rebound by cutting rates too deeply next year,” reported Davide Barbuscia and Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters.

Markets are likely to remain volatile over the coming weeks as investors speculate about the impact of new policies on financial markets. Last week, major U.S. stock indices surged higher. Yields on U.S. Treasuries were mixed with yields moving lower on the shortest and longest maturities and rising for other maturities.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

IT’S A DIRTY JOB…If you’re a fan of baseball, you probably know that major league baseball teams don’t use balls that are fresh out of the box. In fact, the Official Baseball Rules for 2024 explains umpires’ pregame duties which include:

“Receive from the home Club a supply of regulation baseballs, the number and make to be certified to the home Club by the Office of the Commissioner. The umpire shall inspect the baseballs and ensure they are regulation baseballs and that they are properly rubbed so that the gloss is removed. The umpire shall be the sole judge of the fitness of the balls to be used in the game.”

Usually, the gloss is removed by rubbing Lena Blackburne Baseball Rubbing Mud into the unused baseballs. “Originally marketed as ‘magic,’ it’s just a little thicker than chocolate pudding—a tiny dab is enough to remove the factory gloss from a new ball without mucking up the seams or getting the cover too filthy. Equipment managers rub it on before every game, allowing pitchers to get a dependable grip,” reported Emma Baccellieri of Sports Illustrated.

The mud is sourced from a secret location, somewhere along a tributary of the Delaware River, has been passed from generation to generation of this family business since the 1930s. The mud is unique because it has “a high clay content in the soil, an oddity for the area, plus brackish water from the tributary mixing with ‘cedar water’ dropping from nearby trees. Perfect conditions exist for only about a mile.” Jim Bintliff told Baccellieri.

Recently, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania School of Engineering and Applied Science and School of Arts & Sciences studied the mud and then published their findings in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. According to ScienceDaily, the paper’s lead author devised three experiments to determine whether mudding baseballs is a superstition, like rally caps and playoff beards, or a value-adding process. The experiments measured the mud’s spread-ability and stickiness, as well as any change in “friction against the fingertips.”

The experiments confirmed baseball players’ long-held belief that magic mud really does improve the performance of baseballs. The substance “spreads like a skin cream and grips like sandpaper,” according to the research.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical.”
—Yogi Berra, baseball legend

The Markets

Are we witnessing an historic event?

For an airplane or a spacecraft, a soft landing occurs when the vehicle “touches the ground in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage it,” according to The Britannica Dictionary.

For the American economy, a soft landing happens when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool the economy and push inflation lower—and achieves its goal without causing a recession and significantly higher unemployment. It’s not an easy task.

“Historically, soft landings have been tough to pull off…Keeping unemployment and inflation low while at the same time having robust growth is difficult. Threading that needle has proven to be quite elusive,” reported a source cited by Aly J. Yale of The Wall Street Journal.

Solid economic growth, low unemployment, rising wages, and falling inflation have one Federal Reserve official and several economists declaring that the American economy has achieved this rare event—a soft-landing, reported Bryan Mena of CNN.

So, exactly how well is the U.S. doing?

“The extent to which America has outperformed other countries since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic is breathtaking. Its real GDP has expanded by more than 10 [percent], nearly three times as much as the euro area. Among the G20 group, which includes both rich countries and emerging markets, America is the only one where output is above pre-pandemic expectations, according to the International Monetary Fund,” reported Simon Rabinovitch of The Economist.

Last week, “with an election and Federal Reserve meeting still to come, stocks faltered under the weight of the uncertainty,” reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s. Major U.S. stock indices finished the week lower. Uncertainty about the direction of future government spending and its possible effect on Federal Reserve policy caused some turmoil in bond markets, too, reported Paul R. LaMonica of Barron’s. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week, while yields on shorter maturities moved lower.

PERCEPTION VS. REALITY. The human brain is complex and powerful. It runs on about 20 watts of power and brains need to be recharged, just like your cell phone does, according to Northwestern Medicine.

It’s interesting to note that brains are not objective. They catalogue our experiences, beliefs, and emotions and then interpret what’s happening around us. As a result, our reality on any given day is affected by “our personal physical abilities, energy levels, feelings, social identities, and more,” reported Jill Suttie in Greater Good Magazine.

For example, studies have found that hills look steeper when people are:

• Tired.
• Wearing backpacks.
• Thinking of people they dislike.

In contrast, hills look less steep when people feel energetic or think of a supportive friend.

An August survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, a small-business advocacy group, reinforced the idea that there is a gap between economic perception and economic reality. The survey found that small business owners were quite optimistic about the financial state of their businesses, reasonably optimistic about the state of their local economies, and pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy.

When survey participants were asked when the United States might experience another recession, 52 percent said the U.S. economy was in a recession right now. A recession is a downturn in economic activity that lasts for a significant period. Economic data show the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S.), has been growing since late 2020.

The answers were interesting because most businesses—small and large—experience declines in sales and profitability when the national economy is doing poorly or in a recession. The gap in perception and reality may reflect the fact that “people are upbeat about what they see directly but pessimistic about what they glean indirectly through media (and social media),” opined Rabinovitch of The Economist.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.”
—Winston Churchill, former British Prime Minister

Sources:
https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/soft-landing
https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/banking/what-is-a-soft-landing (or go to Https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_Buy%20Side%20from%20WSJ_2.pdf)
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/economy/us-economy-gdp-q3/index.html
https://view.e.economist.com/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_The%20Economist_Money%20Talks_4.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/market-tricked-investors-election-day-bounce-7ea56c39?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_Barrons_The%20Market%20Tricked%20Investors_5.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_Barrons%20Data_6.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-yields-jobs-report-treasury-6f6e602e?mod=md_bond_news (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_Barrons_Bond%20Yields%20Fell%20After%20Jobs%20Report_7.pdf)
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024
https://www.nm.org/healthbeat/healthy-tips/11-fun-facts-about-your-brain
https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/eight_reasons_to_distrust_your_own_perceptions
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S002210310800070X#:~
https://strgnfibcom.blob.core.windows.net/nfibcom/Banking-Survey-2023-Part-II.pdf [Questions 20-23]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP#0 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_FRED%20Data_13.pdf)
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/recession-affecting-business.asp#:
https://www.azquotes.com/quote/56321?ref=funny-political