Weekly Market Insights | Solid Gains for Thanksgiving Week

by | Dec 2, 2024 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Stocks posted solid gains over a short and busy holiday week as investors parsed fresh economic data, comments on potential future trade policy, and a few Q3 reports from technology companies.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.06 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 1.13 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.39 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 2.02 percent.1,2

Rally Extends

Stocks staged a broad-based rally to start the week as investors reacted to the nominee for Secretary of the Treasury. Small-cap stocks continued their month-to-date surge as the Russell 2000 Index rose to an all-time high. News that consumer confidence rose in November appeared to contribute to gains.3,4

Then stocks took a pre-Thanksgiving pause as investors digested economic data. Also, disappointing Q3 updates from two computer hardware manufacturers weighed on the tech sector in pre-Thanksgiving trading.5

Semiconductor stocks rallied on Friday, pushing all three averages higher for a second straight week. The Dow cracked 45,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500 hit a new record high—with each index closing out its best month of 2024.6
 

Tariff Talk

Some of the post-election rally has been driven by investor expectations for less regulation and lower corporate taxes proposed by the incoming administration. One area of concern has been the economic impact of proposed tariffs.

Some market observers believe that the markets have already priced in the impact of these tariffs. In contrast, others see a new Treasury Secretary as a potential buffer in the tariff talks.7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index. Construction Spending. Fed Official John Williams speaks.

Tuesday: Motor Vehicle Sales. Fed Official Austan Goolsbee speaks.

Wednesday: ADP Employment Report. Fed Official Alberto Musalem speaks. Factory Orders. EIA Petroleum Status Report.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. International Trade in Goods and Services. Fed Official Thomas Barkin speaks. Fed Balance Sheet.

Friday: Employment Situation. Consumer Sentiment. Fed Officials Mary Daly, Beth Hammack and Austan Goolsbee speak.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; November 29, 2024
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: Salesforce Inc. (CRM), Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)

Wednesday: Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS)

Thursday: The Kroger Co. (KR)

Source: Zacks, November 29, 2024.
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“I imagine one of the reasons people cling to their hates so stubbornly is because they sense, once hate is gone, they will be forced to deal with pain.”

– James Baldwin

How to Verify Your Identity When Calling the IRS

When calling the IRS, you can expect them to verify your identity before delving into personal information. Here’s what you’ll need to verify your identity:

  • Social Security number
  • Birthdate
  • An Individual Taxpayer Identification Number if you have one instead of your SSN
  • Your filing status
  • Your prior tax return. You may need information from your prior year’s return to answer certain questions.
  • A copy of the tax return you’re calling about
  • Any letters or notices you’ve received from the IRS

Important note: the IRS will only ask for this in documents or online. Never offer this info to someone who calls you and says they are from the IRS.

Having all this information handy before you call the IRS will make the process faster because IRS phone operators will only speak with the taxpayer or a legally designated representative.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS8

How to Get the Recommended 10,000 Steps a Day

Getting 10,000 steps in throughout the day (or moving at all!) might sound impossible, but you can make minor tweaks to get those feet moving. Here are a few ideas:

  • When running errands, park your car further away and walk from there.
  • Create a “loop” in your hours that you can walk in between meetings or when you need to get up from your desk. Your loop could even be around the kitchen island!
  • Walk in place while watching TV.
  • Listen to a great podcast or audiobook while you walk. It will make the time go by faster!

Tip adapted from Organizing Moms9

What has one eye and yet can’t see?

Last week’s riddle: A palindrome is any word, phrase, or number that reads the same, either forward or backward. Can you think of a palindrome word spelled in all capitals that looks the same backward, forwards, or upside down? Answer: NOON.

Indonesian Turtle Hatchling

Ujung Genteng, West Java, Indonesia

 

Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2024

2. Investing.com, November 29, 2024

3. The Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2024

4. CNBC.com, November 26, 2024

5. The Wall Street Journal, November 27, 2024

6. The Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2024

7. CNBC.com, November 26, 2024

8. IRS.gov, October 23, 2023

9. Organizing Moms, July 24, 2024

Happy Thanksgiving

by | Nov 27, 2024 | Noteworthy

Thanksgiving will be here soon. The holiday always gives us a chance to appreciate what we have – friendships, relationships, and a sense of togetherness. These gifts are priceless.

This holiday is also an appropriate time for me to thank you – for choosing me as your trusted financial professional and for allowing me to get to know you and help you as you pursue your goals.

I hope that this year’s Thanksgiving brings you some beautiful memories. I wish you a great Thanksgiving and a wonderful holiday season.

Weekly Market Commentary November 28, 2024

by | Nov 27, 2024 | Carson

The Markets

The post-election rally resumed.

Investors shook off concerns about interest rates and inflation, and U.S. stocks climbed higher last week. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index gained every day last week, and the rally wasn’t limited to a few popular stocks: 425 of the companies in the Index finished the week higher, according to Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.

“Beneficiaries of the incoming administration’s looser regulation and business-friendly stance put forth strong showings this week. Stocks gained while [cryptocurrency] crushed doubters and the dollar extended gains into an eighth week, the currency’s longest run of the year. Blue chips and small caps led Friday’s equities advance as this year’s big tech winners struggled to gain ground,” reported Cristin Flanagan of Bloomberg.

It has been a great year to own U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is up more than 25 percent so far this year, performing significantly better than major indexes in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets, reported Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters. The catch is that markets are trading at heady valuations.

“…The broadening market can’t hide just how expensive stocks have become. The S&P 500 trades at 22.1 times 12-month forward earnings…the highest since 2020, when it hit 22.9 times. To see multiples meaningfully higher than that, one has to go back to the dot-com era, when the index traded at more than 25 times earnings,” reported Sonenshine of Barron’s.

Not everyone had an appetite for risk last week. The price of gold, which many investors consider to be a safe haven when markets are volatile, rose amid escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war, reported Yvonne Yue Li of Bloomberg.

Major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher. Treasury yields were mixed last week with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moving lower over the week lower and the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury moving higher.

 

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. 

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

HOW TO HAVE AN ESTATE OR TAG SALE. Estate and tag sales can be emotional experiences. Usually, these sales are scheduled around major life changes such as the need to:

  • Relocate or downsize,
  • Move to independent or assisted living, or
  • Settle the estate of a loved one.

Organizing a sale is hard work, and parting with your belongings or those of a loved one is never easy, especially when they have sentimental value. That may be why many people opt to hire an estate planning company to manage these sales. The cost to do so is usually 30 percent to 40 percent of sale proceeds. However, estate sale companies “typically provide a gross sales minimum. This means that the total value of all the items to be sold must meet or exceed that value,” reported Doug Luftman of Trust & Will.

The other option is to organize and hold the sale yourself. If you choose that route, here are three tips that can help make an estate sale successful.

  1. Hire an appraiser. As the Antiques Roadshow demonstrates, it is difficult to know the value of some items. Undervaluation applies to antiques and everyday items. For instance, the portable ultrasound your uncle bought when he was recovering from surgery, which has been gathering dust on the shelf ever since, may be worth a whole lot more than you think it is. An appraiser can help ensure you don’t undervalue sales items, reported Heidi Mitchell in AARP Magazine.

 

  1. Promote the sale. Posting a hand-written sign near your sale site is unlikely to attract the number of buyers you need. Luftman recommended advertising your estate sale on social media sites and online marketplaces, as well as local newspapers. Mitchell suggested that the advertisements include hashtags for applicable key words. These may include #high-end, #designer, #one-of-a-kind, and #collectors.

 

  1. Choose payment options carefully. Some estate sale shoppers will have cash, others will want to pay digitally. Think carefully about what types of payment you will accept and the tools you will need to accept them, reported Patrick Villanova and Arturo Conde in SmartAsset. For instance, you will need to have change and a lock box on hand for cash transactions, and an app on a phone or tablet for digital transactions.

 

Organizing an estate sale on your own saves on cost, but requires planning and coordination, as well as a team to oversee the sale. Outsourcing the sale has a higher cost, but requires less time, effort, and emotional stress. Everyone needs to decide which approach is the best one for their situation.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Estate- and tag-sale companies mainly deal with two generations: homeowners born during the Great Depression…and boomers looking to pare down. The groups have different reputations in the business. Depression-era homeowners are known for their pack-rat behavior, and the boomers are known for just having a lot of really nice stuff—the result of having lived through the perfect time in history to consume amply in early adulthood.”
—Lizzie Feidelson, The New Yorker

Weekly Market Insights | Pre-Holiday Optimism Lifts Markets

by | Nov 25, 2024 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Stocks advanced last week, powering ahead with pre-holiday optimism despite geopolitical tensions and two disappointing Q3 corporate updates. 

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.68 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.73 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led, picking up 1.96 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was flat (-0.05 percent).1,2

Stock Push Ahead

Stocks showed mixed results during the first half of the week due to geopolitical tensions that boosted precious metals and put pressure on Treasury yields.3

The Dow Industrials jumped out in front midweek and never looked back. Disappointing earnings on Tuesday from a large box retailer held back some gains in the broader S&P 500. A mixed Q3 update report from the nation’s leading AI chipmaking company also tempered gains a bit.4

Year-end optimism, especially around consumers driving a healthy holiday shopping season, supported the rally for much of the week. Fresh data that weekly jobless claims dropped to a seven-month low also lifted spirits.5,6

Small-Cap Focus

For several weeks, investors have favored small-cap names over larger-cap issues. This trend was again on display last week.

The Russell 2000, an index of 2,000 small-cap companies widely used as a benchmark for U.S. small-cap stocks, rose 4.50 percent for the five days of trading. In the month-to-date through November 22, the Russell is up nearly 9 percent.7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. New Home Sales. FOMC Minutes.

Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Durable Goods. Pending Home Sales. Personal Income and Outlays.

Thursday: Markets Closed—Thanksgiving Holiday.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; November 21, 2024
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A)

Tuesday: Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Source: Zacks, November 21, 2024.
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“Keep some room in your heart for the unimaginable.”

– Mary Oliver

Did You Know That You Have the Right to Challenge the IRS?

As a taxpayer, you can challenge the IRS’ position; this is part of the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, which outlines your fundamental rights when working with the IRS. 

With this right, you can:

  • Raise objections to an IRS decision
  • Provide additional documentation in response to proposed or formal IRS actions
  • Expect the IRS to deliver a timely objection
  • Have the IRS consider any supporting documentation promptly and fairly
  • Receive a response from the IRS if they disagree with your position

In some circumstances, you may have a hearing before an independent Office of Appeals.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS8

Zero-Waste Grocery Shopping Tips

There are many ways to have an eco-friendly shopping trip at the grocery store. Here are a few tips to reduce plastic usage and aim for a zero-waste trip to the store:

  • When possible, buy your dry goods from the bulk bin; this saves on plastic packaging compared to the ready-made items in the aisles. 
  • You can bring your bags, bulk containers, jars, or bulk bags from home. 
  • If you can’t shop in bulk bins, look for dry goods or produce in aluminum cans, which are easier to recycle. 
  • Paper or glass are both better for the environment than plastic. Choose eggs and milk in cardboard containers. 
  • If you have to buy a plastic container of something, buy the biggest size available. It will last longer and use less packaging.

 

Tip adapted from Green Matters9

A palindrome is any word, phrase, or number that reads the same, either forward or backward. Can you think of a palindrome word spelled in all capitals that looks the same backward, forwards, or upside down?

Last week’s riddle: I’m not alive, yet I grow. I need air, yet I have no lungs. I lack a mouth, yet water will calm me down. What am I? Answer: Fire.

Clown Anemonefish 

Maldives, South Asia

 

Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, November 22, 2024

2. Investing.com, November 22, 2024

3. MarketWatch.com, November 19, 2024

4. CNBC.com, November 20, 2024

5. CNBC.com, November 21, 2024

6. MarketWatch.com, November 21, 2024

7. The Wall Street Journal, November 22, 2024

8. IRS.gov, July 5, 2024

9. Green Matters, July 24, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary November 20, 2024

by | Nov 20, 2024 | Carson

The Markets

The United States stock market changed course.

Last week, the strength of the United States economy slowed investors’ roll. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell told business leaders in Dallas, Texas, that the performance of the United States economy has been “remarkably good,” better than any major economy in the world, which gives the Fed “the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”

Powell’s comments caused investors to reassess the likely pace of rate cuts. As they did, the probability of a December rate cut fell sharply, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The likelihood that the Fed may lower rates more slowly than expected roiled markets. Lu Wang, Isabelle Lee, and Emily Graffeo of Bloomberg reported, “With the world’s most important central banker in no hurry to ease monetary policy thanks to a still-robust labor market and strong economic data, bond yields once again rose and dragged stocks lower in their wake. Down 2 [percent] over five sessions, the S&P 500 erased half of its trough-to-peak gains since the election. Combined with losses in corporate credit and commodities, the week rounded out a pan-asset retreat that by one measure was the worst in 13 months.”

Investors’ changing outlook was shaped by other factors, too. These included:

  • Elevated stock valuations. Bella Albrecht of Morningstar reported, “The U.S. stock market is trading at an 11 [percent] premium to its fair value estimate.” The data reflected share prices on November 13, which was midway through last week.
  • The risk of inflation rising again. Many economists believe the incoming administration’s spending and tax policies have the potential to reignite inflation, which could lead the Fed to reassess monetary policy.
  • A disrupting cabinet nomination. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services rattled healthcare and consumer staples sectors of the market. “Shares of biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies fell, with the S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals index down about 2 [percent]. Shares of packaged food and beverage giants…also declined,” reported Samuel Indyk and Ludwig Burger of Reuters.

By the end of the week, major U.S. stock indices were down. U.S. bond markets continued to be wary of tariffs and inflation, lifting the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury to 4.5 percent. By week’s end, though, the 10-year Treasury yield had settled at 4.3 percent, reported Liz Capo McCormick of Bloomberg.

THANKSGIVING ABUNDANCE. Turkey, mashed potatoes, and cranberry sauce have been on the Thanksgiving table for a long time. In many homes, though, the holiday meal has evolved to include regional dishes, cultural treats, and family favorites. People who responded to a social media post asking about unique Thanksgiving dishes reported that their meals include:

  • Sliced tomatoes, cucumbers, olives, and onions with oil and vinegar,
  • Chorizo cornbread with jalapeños,
  • Sashimi and grilled salmon collar,
  • Cranberries, grapes, walnuts and whipped cream salad,
  • Quinoa with roasted delicata squash, kale, and pistachios,
  • Creamed pearl onions,
  • Spinach casserole,
  • Twice baked potatoes,
  • Shrimp and mirlitons (pear-shaped squash), and many other dishes.

 Another reason Thanksgiving meals have evolved is dietary preferences. Some families include one or more vegetarian or vegan members, and others are eating less meat for health reasons.

Of course, grocery stores have played a significant role in the evolution of Thanksgiving dinner. “The average grocery store today has 300,000+ [items in stock], nearly eight times more than the average store of the 1970s,” reported Andy Nelson in Supermarket Perimeter. Having access to a wider variety of ingredients makes it possible to prepare holiday feasts that make your taste buds happy.

What is your family’s favorite Thanksgiving dish?

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The first Thanksgiving meal in Plymouth probably had little in common with today’s traditional holiday spread. Although turkeys were indigenous, there’s no record of a big roasted bird at the feast. The Wampanoag brought deer and there would have been lots of local seafood (mussels, lobster, bass) plus the fruits of the pilgrim harvest, including pumpkin. No mashed potatoes, though. Potatoes had only recently been shipped back to Europe from South America.”
—Origins of Thanksgiving National Holiday, History.com

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