Weekly Market Insights | Investors Read Inflation Risk in Job Numbers

Stocks fell for the second consecutive week as a round of fresh economic data stoked inflationary fears among investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.94 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.34 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.86 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.49 percent.1,2

Inflation Stymies Markets

Stocks rallied broadly to start the week, but two economic reports on Tuesday—job openings and the prices-paid index among service companies—raised fresh inflation concerns. Higher Treasury yields also put pressure on stocks.3,4

Stocks flattened out on Wednesday. Investors reacted to news that most Federal Open Market Committee members agreed inflation risks had increased, per minutes from the Fed’s December meeting.5,6

U.S. stock markets were closed Thursday in observance of President Jimmy Carter’s funeral.

On Friday, a warmer-than-expected December jobs report caused investors to question whether the Fed will adjust rates in 2025. News that consumer sentiment ticked down also pushed stocks lower.7

 
 

When Good Becomes Bad News

The economy added 256,000 jobs in December—100,000 more than economists expected. That’s the second-highest monthly job gain for 2024. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent, which was also better than anticipated.

Job growth and lower unemployment signals good news for the economy but bad news for the markets. A stronger jobs market puts less pressure on the Fed to adjust rates, especially with inflation top-of-mind among investors.8,9

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Treasury Statement.

Tuesday: Producer Price Index. Fed officials Jeffrey Schmid and John Williams speak.

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index. Fed officials Thomas Barkin, Neel Kashkari, John Williams, and Austan Goolsbee speak. Fed Beige Book.

Thursday: Retail Sales. Import and Export Prices. Business Inventories. Homebuilder Confidence Index.

Friday: Housing Starts and Permits. Industrial Production.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; January 9, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK), Citigroup Inc. (C), The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)

Thursday: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS)

Source: Zacks, January 9, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for. And the most you can do is live inside that hope. Not admire it from a distance but live right in it, under its roof.

– Barbara Kingsolver

Self-Employed Tax Obligations

There are a few tax considerations to consider when you work for yourself. Generally, you’re required to file and pay estimated taxes during the year.

  • Make quarterly payments if you’ve determined you need to use Form 11040-ES.
  • Filing annually: If you’re filing annually, you must use Schedule C to report income or loss. To file your Social Security and Medicare taxes, you should file Schedule SE Form 1040.
  • Deductions: If you’re using part of your home for business, you may be able to make certain deductions, such as for your office or a portion of your home’s square footage used for business purposes.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS10

Restorative Yoga: Long and Easy Stretching

Whether you have been curious about yoga but have never tried it, or if you’re a seasoned yogi looking for something new, restorative yoga has something for everyone. This gentle yoga uses props like blocks, blankets, and straps. Stretches and poses are held for a longer time, yielding many benefits. Here are a few ways that restorative yoga can be beneficial for many people:

  • It can help with neck, lower back, hip, and shoulder pain
  • It can help with insomnia
  • All ages widely practice it, and modifications are available
  • It can relax the mind and help with anxiety
  • It may help to cope with serious illnesses and life events
  • It may improve respiratory and circulatory function

Check your local yoga studios or gyms to enroll in a restorative yoga class. If you can’t find one, there are online yoga courses you can try. It might be a stretch worth taking (ask your doctor if yoga might be right for you).

Tip adapted from Mindbodygreen.com11

Dave is at the hardware store to buy something for his house. Yesterday, he bought 1 for $1. The week before, he purchased 10 for $2, and his friend bought 100 for $3. Today, he bought 907 for $3. If the prices haven’t changed, how is this possible?

Last week’s riddle: David put on a white shirt with three large holes in it and went to the grocery store. No one gave him a funny look; no one objected to it. What kind of shirt was David wearing? Answer: A white t-shirt (the holes were the collar and sleeves of the shirt)

Surprise Glacier

Prince William Sound, Alaska

Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2025

2. Investing.com, January 10, 2025

3. CNBC.com, January 6, 2025

4. The Wall Street Journal, January 7, 2025

5. CNBC.com, January 8, 2025

6. MarketWatch.com, January 8, 2025

7. CNBC.com, January 10, 2025

8. The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2025

9. TradingEconomics.com, January 10, 2025

10. IRS.gov, September 30, 2024

11. Mindbodygreen.com, October 3, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | Stocks Decline Slightly as New Year Dawns

Stocks edged lower last week despite a powerful end-of-week rally.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.48 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slid 0.51 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.60 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dropped 0.90 percent.1,2

Selling Then Buying

Stocks were under pressure right out of the gate on Monday for no apparent reason other than worries over the loss of year-end momentum. By the end of trading on Monday, markets recovered some losses, but the selling picked up again on Tuesday.3,4

After being closed for the New Year’s holiday, stocks opened higher for the first trading day of 2025. But sellers gained the upper hand by the end of trading. On Friday, Investors perked up with tech stocks leading a recovery rally that erased most of the week’s losses.5,6

 
 

Megacap’s Mega Influence

Megacap tech stocks have captured many headlines over the last two years as the S&P 500 posted double-digit returns (24 percent for 2023 and 23 percent for 2024).

And for a good reason—megacap tech stocks were doing most of the work. For example, during the past 12 months of trading, more than half (53 percent) of the S&P 500’s return can be attributed to the Magnificent Seven–the seven megacap tech companies that most investors would consider household names.7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Fed Official Lisa Cook speaks. Factory Orders.

Tuesday: Fed Official Thomas Barkin speaks. International Trade in Goods and Services.

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes released. ADP Employment Report. Fed Official Christopher Waller speaks.

Thursday: Stock market closed for President Carter’s state funeral.

Friday: Employment Situation. Consumer Sentiment.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; January 3, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)

Thursday: Infosys (INFY), Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ)

Friday: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Source: Zacks, January 3, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

The biggest disease today is not leprosy or tuberculosis, but rather the feeling of being unwanted.

– Mother Teresa

Tips for Good Recordkeeping

When you file your tax return, the first step is to prepare your records. Good recordkeeping throughout the year can make filing your taxes easier. 

Here are some recordkeeping tips:

  • Identify all sources of income.
  • Keep track of expenses.
  • Add tax records to your files as you receive them to make filing easier. 
  • Organize support items that you may need to clarify your tax return. 

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS8

How to Drink More Water Throughout the Day

Drinking enough water is essential to keep you feeling your best. While there aren’t any strict rules on exactly how much water you should drink, you should listen to your body to ensure you’re getting enough. 

Here are some tips on how to drink more water throughout the day:

  • Keep a reusable water bottle with you, saving plastic and making drinking water more convenient (and fun). 
  • Set reminders on your phone to drink water, or “anchor” drinking water to other habits throughout your day (for example, drink some water at the end of every meeting).
  • Replace other drinks, such as coffee and soda, with water.
  • Drink a glass of water before every meal.
  • Flavor your water with fruit or healthy water enhancers.

Tip adapted from Healthline9

David put on a white shirt with three large holes in it and went to the grocery store. No one gave him a funny look; no one objected to it. What kind of shirt was David wearing?

Last week’s riddle: Throughout Friday, Hanna asks her mother the same four-word question. On each occasion, her mother gives her a different answer. What is the question?
Answer: “What time is it?”

Surfing Pulau Panaitan

Jakarta, Banten, Indonesia

 

Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2025

2. Investing.com, January 3, 2025

3. CNBC.com, December 30, 2024

4. The Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2024

5. CNBC.com, January 2, 2025

6. CNBC.com, January 3, 2025

7.  The Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2024

8. IRS.gov, October 2, 2024

9. Healthline, October 3, 2024

Fed Cuts Rates; Focuses on Dual Mandate

The Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut following its November meeting, telling investors that it’s continuing its push to “right-size monetary policy.”

The benchmark Fed funds rate has a target range of 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent. That rate can influence everything from mortgages to car loans to credit card rates.

Taking a step back, it’s important to remember that the Fed has a dual mandate when managing monetary policy. Since 1977, Congress has tasked the Fed with price stability while maximizing employment.

As the two charts show, in recent months, the Fed appears more successful at managing inflation than boosting employment. Inflation fell to 2.4 percent in September, but the economy added only 12,000 jobs in October. So, while it’s upbeat news on inflation, it’s a bit concerning that job creation has trended lower for most of 2024.

Remember, the U.S. economy is a massive (nearly $30 trillion GDP) and complex system influenced by a wide range of factors. So, the Fed has many factors to consider when adjusting monetary policy to guide inflation and employment.

But remember, to me, the most important economy is your family’s economy.

With the 2024 election over and the New Year in sight, please reach out if you have any concerns about our strategy.

TradingEconomics. com, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary December 30, 2024

The Markets

Consumers were more optimistic. Investors were less so.

As we neared the end of 2024, U.S. consumers were feeling optimistic. Every month the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers conducts about 600 interviews with American households, asking interviewees about their personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions.

In December 2024, the Index of Consumer Sentiment was up 3.1 percent month to month, and 6.2 percent year to year. Consumer sentiment rose “for the fifth consecutive month…reaching its highest value since April 2024. Buying conditions exhibited a particularly strong 32 [percent] improvement, primarily due to a surge in consumers expecting future price increases for large purchases…Broadly speaking, consumers believe that the economy has improved considerably as inflation has slowed, but they do not feel that they are thriving; sentiment is currently about midway between the all-time low reached in June 2022 and pre-pandemic readings,” reported survey Director Joanne Hsu.

Individual investors, on the other hand, were feeling less bullish than they did earlier in the month. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found that investors’ outlook shifted in December. Investors became more uncertain, and a higher percentage reported feeling bearish.

 

  Week of Dec. 4 Week of Dec. 25 Historical average

Highest

in 2024

Bullish

(Stock prices will rise over the next six months)

48.3% 37.8% 37.5% 52.7% (July 17, 2024)

Neutral

(Uncertain which way stock prices will move)

21.0% 28.0% 31.5% 35.9% (May 15, 2024)

Bearish

(Stock prices will fall over the next six months)

30.7% 34.1% 31.0% 38.6% (Nov. 27, 2024)

Source: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Investor sentiment is often considered to be a contrarian indicator. The AAII website explained, “Although investors would like to imagine that their decisions are rational, most have bought at near-highs due to fear of losing out on gains and sold at near-lows due to fear of further losses. This herd behavior is called market sentiment; when market sentiment is low, the majority believes the market will fall, while high market sentiment means that the majority feels the market will rise in value. However, more often than not, the market will move against the sentiment of the majority. Therefore, many professional money managers use market sentiment as a contrarian indicator, buying when sentiment is pessimistic and selling when sentiment is optimistic.”

Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished higher, and yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries rose. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yielded 4.62 percent at the end of the day on Friday.

IDIOMS DON’T SAY WHAT THEY MEAN…If you’ve ever “cried wolf,” “gone the extra mile,” or “had butterflies in your stomach,” then you’re familiar with idioms—phrases that don’t mean what they say. They’re used to “add color” to communications, making what’s said or written more memorable. The English language has a lot of idioms about money. Test your knowledge of money idioms by taking this quiz.

 

  1. Someone says, “You can take it to the bank.” What they mean is you should:
    1. Make a deposit.
    2. Proceed with caution, it may be a scam
    3. Believe a statement is true and accurate
    4. Understand that a venture will generate a lot of money

 

  1. If someone is ‘living on a shoestring,” they have a very limited budget. Which of the following may explain how the saying originated?
    1. Shoestrings are thin and break easily
    2. Peddlers once made a living by traveling town to town selling shoelaces
    3. British prisoners would lower a shoe by its laces through cell windows hoping someone would give them money
    4. All of the above

 

  1. If you believe that a new product or service will do well you might say it will:
    1. Break the bank
    2. Put cash on the barrelhead
    3. Sell like hotcakes
    4. Hop on the gravy train

 

  1. When people offer aid to a person or group in need, they are:
    1. Striking while the iron is hot
    2. Following the herd
    3. Playing the long game
    4. Offering a helping hand

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“When we love, we always strive to become better than we are. When we strive to become better than we are, everything around us becomes better too.”
 —Paulo Coelho, author

 

Answers: 1) c; 2) d; 3) c; 4) d

Happy New Year!

Sending you warm thoughts and best wishes for a wonderful new year. May the days ahead be filled with joy, laughter, and prosperity for you and those you hold most dear.

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