Weekly Market Commentary

The Markets

As the market turns…

When investor preferences shift and money flows from one sector, industry, investment style or geographic region into another, it is called a market rotation.

For years, stock markets in the United States have outperformed stock markets elsewhere. “The outperformance is attributed to U.S. exceptionalism fueled by a strong culture of innovation and entrepreneurship; more flexible labor markets; higher productivity; stronger consumer consumption driving demand for goods and services; a more favorable regulatory environment; lower corporate taxes; stronger intellectual property rights; and more open markets and trade policy,” reported Larry Swedroe of Morningstar.

One consequence of U.S. outperformance is that investors outside of the United States own a lot of U.S. stocks, about $18.4 trillion, reported Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg. The percent of European investors’ total equity portfolios invested in U.S. stocks has more than tripled since 2011, in part due to strong performance.

Now, Europe’s financial markets are outperforming those in the United States.

“Across assets of all stripes, the Old Continent is collectively trouncing America in a way that’s rarely been seen before…German bonds last week beat Treasuries by the most ever. And while European shares have been knocked by the trade war, they’re turning out to be far more resilient than American ones,” reported Alice Gledhill, Abhinav Ramnarayan, and Julien Ponthus of Bloomberg last week.

Over the last two months, global investors have backed away from United States markets. Bank of America’s monthly global fund manager survey found that asset managers have reduced U.S. allocations by more than half since February. “A majority think a trade war that triggers global recession is the biggest risk for markets,” reported Reuters.

The recent geographic market rotation was a reminder of the importance of diversification. While diversification won’t prevent losses, it can help investors effectively manage risk. Investors who held a geographical diversified portfolio may have fared better this year than those who invested only in the United States.

Last week, which was shortened by a holiday, major U.S. stock indices moved lower, reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s. Yields on U.S. Treasuries were mixed over the week.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

 THE CURIOUS PATH OF THE U.S. DOLLAR. It’s easy to overlook the importance of the U.S. dollar. Many people have a few bills tucked in their wallets to buy sodas from vending machines, purchase vegetables at a farmer’s market, or pay their babysitters at the end of an evening out.

A lot of the currency issued by the United States is not held by U.S. citizens and U.S. companies. It is tucked away in central banks around the world. For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the world’s primary reserve currency, reported The Economist. The newspaper explained:

“For decades investors have counted on the stability of American assets, making them the keystones of global finance. The depth of a $27trn market helps make Treasuries a haven; the dollar dominates trade in everything from goods and commodities to derivatives. The system is buttressed by the Federal Reserve, which promises low inflation, and by America’s sturdy governance, under which foreigners and their money have been welcome and secure.”

The U.S. dollar is not as dominant as it once was. In the early 2000s, many central banks began to diversify their holdings into Australian and Canadian dollars, Swedish krona, and Swiss francs, reported The Economist.

Regardless, the reason other countries keep their reserves in U.S. dollars is because the U.S. has large and open financial markets and other countries can access their reserves when needed, reported Anshu Siripurapu and Noah Berman of CFR.

Is the U.S. dollar a safe haven?
Normally, when markets become volatile and investors flee to perceived “safe havens”, the U.S. dollar strengthens. But that isn’t what happened recently. Since the start of the year, the United States dollar has weakened despite market volatility, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s.

“…the chaotic rollout of…tariff policy has resulted in declines in the dollar and prices of longer-term U.S. government securities in tandem with declines in risky assets such as stocks—a reaction contrary to the currency’s and Treasuries’ usual performance as havens during episodes of market volatility. Markets stabilized in the latest week but remain on edge,” wrote Forsyth.

One market concern is that falling demand for the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields could spell trouble for the United States. High demand makes it possible for the U.S. to borrow money at a low cost, reported CFR. If demand falls, that could change.

“…rising Treasury yields also cloud the outlook for U.S. government spending, and by extension economic growth. Higher yields mean the U.S. government will owe more interest on any debt it rolls over or issues for new spending, exacerbating worries about the federal deficit,” reported Jesse Pound of CNBC.

The federal deficit is the difference between what the government receives and what it pays out. Each annual deficit is added to the national debt.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“All that you touch You Change.
All that you Change Changes you.
The only lasting truth Is Change.”
–Octavia Butler, Author

Weekly Market Commentary

The Markets

All eyes on the bond market.

The scale of the tariffs introduced by the administration shocked investors, sparking a roller coaster of a week for stock markets. Last week, U.S. stocks:

  • Rallied on a rumor.
  • Fell when the rumor was recognized as a rumor.
  • Rose when President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on most countries for 90-days.
  • Fell as investors considered how the remaining baseline tariffs (10 percent on all countries, steel and aluminum tariffs, and 100%+ tariffs on China) might affect companies and economies.
  • Rallied after the Federal Reserve assured investors it was prepared to step in, if needed.

“Economic angst enveloped every corner of Wall Street as U.S.-China trade tensions escalated, sparking a slide in stocks, the dollar and oil, with liquidations in U.S. assets pointing to disorder in the financial system,” reported Rita Nazareth, Isabelle Lee, Denitsa Tsekova, and Vildana Hajric of Bloomberg.”

Disorder in the financial system

Some of the disorder was found in the United States Treasury market where yields were moving higher when many expected them to move lower. Investors who are concerned about risk and sell stocks tend to seek financial shelter in investments that are perceived to be steady in a storm. For many years, United States Treasuries have been a “safe haven”.

 So, last week, there was an expectation that, as investors sought shelter from the tariff storm, rising demand would push Treasury yields lower. That wasn’t the case. Investors sold U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields higher, reported Sydney Maki and Carter Johnson of Bloomberg.

“Billed as so rock-solid safe they’re risk-free, US Treasury bonds have long been the first port of call for investors during times of panic. They rallied during the global financial crisis, on 9/11 and even when America’s own credit rating was cut…But this time may be different. As President Donald Trump unleashes an all-out assault on global trade, their status as the world’s safe haven is increasingly coming into question…Yields, especially on longer-term debt, have surged in recent days while the dollar has plunged,” reported David Rovella of Bloomberg.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) soothed the market

On Friday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins both discussed ways the Fed can “manage a dislocation, or pricing disruption, in the Treasury market…[the moves] are instruments designed to keep markets running smoothly by making sure there is enough liquidity, meaning financial institutions have access to the short-term funding they need to operate,” reported Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s.

Markets were soothed by the assurance that the Fed stands ready to “keep financial markets functioning should the need arise,” reported Stephen Culp of Reuters. By the end of trading on Friday, major U.S. stock indices were in positive territory. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries also finished the week higher.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT MONEY? The United States began using paper money in 1690. The Massachusetts Bay Colony paid soldiers fighting military campaigns against the French in Canada with paper notes. “This was an emergency measure, but it turned out to be a solution to the long-term problem of building an economy without large reserves of precious metals. Eventually, all of the other colonies issued their own bills,” according to Smithsonian Education.

See what you know about the history of American money by taking this brief quiz.

  1. Ben Franklin printed money for Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey. He often included images from nature, such as intricately detailed leaves. What was the primary reason Franklin included nature prints on notes?
    1. The visually pleasing notes attracted customers
    2. The prints symbolized the growth of the nation
    3. The prints symbolized money circulating through the economy
    4. The prints made Franklin’s notes difficult to counterfeit

 

  1. When did the era of “lawful money” (the modern era) begin?
    1. In 1792, when the US mint was created
    2. In 1893, after a bank panic
    3. In 1913, under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act
    4. In 1936, when Fort Knox was built

 

  1. United States currency is held as a reserve, and for trade, by many other countries. What percentage of our currency is held outside the United States?
    1. One quarter
    2. One third
    3. Two thirds
    4. Three quarters

 

  1. Some denominations of U.S. paper money wear out faster than others. Which denomination has the shortest lifespan?
    1. A $1 bill
    2. A $5 bill
    3. A $10 bill
    4. A $20 bill

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“I find television very educating. Every time somebody turns on the set, I go into the other room and read a book.”
 –Groucho Marx, Comedian

 

Answers: 1) d; 2) c; 3) c; 4) b

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/as-markets-sank-and-soared-a-new-fear-spread-across-wall-street or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-14-25-Bloomberg-As-Markets-Sank%20-%201.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-china-us/card/trump-tariff-pause-welcomed-by-world-leaders-but-china-tensions-mount-UP7utx6ARqUB3SJx2WaJ or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-14-25-Barrons-Trump-Tariff-Pause%20-%202.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-09/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=phx-markets or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-14-25-Bloomberg-S&P-500-Tumbles%20-%203.pdf

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/safe-haven.asp

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/263357/us-treasury-bond-yields-jump-as-trade-war-calls-safe-haven-status-into-question.aspx

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/us-treasury-selloff-is-worst-since-repo-market-chaos-in-2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-11/china-ups-the-ante-in-trump-s-trade-war-evening-briefing-americas?cmpid=eveus&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=250411&utm_campaign=eveus or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-14-25-Bloomberg-China-Ups-the-Ante%20-%207.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-treasuries-bond-market-yields-stocks-5aaf4f24 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-14-25-Barrons-Fed-Knows-How-to-Stabilize%20-%208.pdf

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-stock-futures-fall-china-strikes-back-with-steep-tariffs-2025-04-11/

https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-14-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%2010.pdf

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202504

https://www.smithsonianeducation.org/educators/lesson_plans/revolutionary_money/introduction.html

https://www.uscurrency.gov/sites/default/files/media/podcast/noteworthy-podcast-3-transcript-en.pdf

https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_15197.htm

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/1913-federal-reserve-act.asp

https://www.uscurrency.gov/about-us/currency-facts#

https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/how-long-is-the-life-span-of-us-paper-money.htm

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/humor

Weekly Market Insights | Rally Caps Volatile Week

Stocks ended the week with a strong gain as traders continued to focus on tariff talks while appearing to overlook upbeat news on inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.70 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7.29 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 4.95 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 0.72 percent.1,2

Stocks Rebound

Stocks rallied on Monday after a report surfaced that the administration was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs. But when the White House clarified its position, sellers stepped in.

On Tuesday, prices jumped at the next opening bell after the Treasury Secretary said the U.S. was open to tariff negotiations with trading partners. The rally stalled and reversed on news the administration was adjusting tariffs on Chinese imports.3

After the White House announced a 90-day pause on specific tariffs on Wednesday, markets pushed higher. The S&P 500 gained 9.5 percent, its largest one-day increase in 17 years.4

Stocks fell again Thursday morning, appearing to overlook an upbeat Consumer Price Index report showing that core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose at a 2.8 percent annual rate–the best number in more than four years. Stocks finished the week with a powerful rally, capping a volatile trading week.5,6

Watching the Bond Market

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose more than 50 basis points for the week, marking one of the most significant moves on record. (When bond yields increase, bond prices tend to move lower.)

The week’s action was unexpected. In the past, investors have turned to U.S. bonds during market turbulence. However, the ongoing tariff talks have, at least temporarily, influenced how some overseas investors view U.S. bonds.7,8

The bond market activity influenced the mortgage market, where the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage closed Friday at 7.1 percent, its highest level in two months.9

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speak.

Tuesday: Import Price Index.

Wednesday: Retail Sales. Industrial Production. Business Inventories. Home Builder Confidence Index. Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks.

Thursday: Housing Starts. Building Permits.

Friday: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; April 11, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)

Tuesday:  Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C)

Wednesday: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis, Inc. (PLD)

Thursday: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), American Express Company (AXP), Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC), The Blackstone Group (BX), Infosys (INFY)

Source: Zacks, April 11, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“I think that we communicate only too well, in our silence, in what is unsaid, and that what takes place is a continual evasion, desperate rear-guard attempts to keep ourselves to ourselves. Communication is too alarming.”

– Harold Pinter

Tax Tips for Farmers

If you own a farm, ranch, range, or orchard, here are some tax tips to consider:

  • Insurance payments from crop damage may count as income. Check with your tax professional.
  • If you sold livestock or items you bought for resale, you may have a taxable event.
  • You may be able to deduct ordinary and necessary expenses that you paid for your business.
  • Consider the tax treatment of your farm’s full and part-time workers.
  • If your expenses are more than your income for the year, you may have a net operating loss. You may be able to carry that loss over to other years.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS10

How to Measure Your Heart Rate (Without a Smart Device)

There are so many smart gadgets to help us monitor our health, but knowing how to measure your heart rate without any tech is important to monitor your overall health.

  • To measure your heart rate, gently place your index and middle finger on a pulse point, such as your wrist right below the base of your thumb or your neck right under your jawbone.
  • Lightly press until you can feel your heartbeat, then count the number of beats in 15 seconds. You’ll need a watch or clock to time yourself.
  • Multiply this number by 4 to get your heart rate per minute.
  • Feel free to repeat this exercise a few times to confirm your reading’s accuracy.

Tip adapted from Harvard Medical School11

I have a horn and am almost as large as a car, but I will never honk my horn or outrun a car or truck. What might I be?

 

Last week’s riddle: I can certainly run, but I will never be able to walk by myself. Wherever I go, thoughts are close behind me. What am I?
Answer: A nose.

Scenic Highway 93
Alberta, Canada
 

Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2025

2. Investing.com, April 11, 2025

3. CNBC.com, April 8, 2025

4. The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2025

5. The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2025

6. MarketWatch.com, April 11, 2025

7. WSJ.com, April 9, 2025

8. MarketWatch.com, April 9, 2025

9. CNBC.com, April 11, 2025

10. IRS.gov, June 4, 2024

11. Harvard Medical School, December 12, 2024

Stock Pullbacks Are Helpful, Not Hurtful

Do me a favor: print the chart in this email and pin it to your wall. I want you to have a constant reminder that stock prices see pullbacks several times during the year.

It’s a normal, healthy part of the investing cycle. Is it unsettling? Very! But when prices turn volatile, I want you to slip into your “Been there, done that” t-shirt.

The second half of February was difficult for investors–and the first part of March was not much better either. There were waves of unsettling news about tariffs, inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical events. 

But was the selling unexpected? Not really. Since 1950, history shows that in post-election years, February has been the worst month for stock prices.

(Spoiler alert: Post-1950, June, August, and September also show poorly in post-election years. So mark your calendar.)

It’s important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. So, while we can look to history for trends, it’s uncertain how the rest of 2025 will unfold. 

But if you are getting anxious watching the daily price moves on Wall Street, please call me. I can tell you how I manage the ups and downs.

Carson Investment Research, February 5, 2024

Weekly Market Commentary

The Markets

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs…”

The advice offered by Rudyard Kipling’s poem “If—” resonated last week. A sharp escalation in trade tensions sparked a stock market downturn despite news that the United States economy created far more jobs in March than economists had expected, reported Lucia Mutikani of Reuters.

Late Wednesday, President Trump announced tariffs on countries around the world. The tariffs were significantly larger than anticipated, and stock markets immediately moved lower. Over two days, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index lost about $5 trillion in market capitalization, reported Lynn Thomasson of Bloomberg.

It was the “largest decline for stocks listed on major U.S. exchanges since March 16, 2020, when $3.5 trillion in value was wiped out, according to Dow Jones Market Data,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. (March 2020 was when the COVID-19 outbreak officially became a pandemic.)

In contrast, government bonds rallied as yields fell. Investors preference for lower risk assets “resulted in rising demand for government debt in the U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan and Australia — which sent yields down across all those countries,” reported Vivien Lou Chen of MarketWatch.

Three reasons for the stock market downturn

While tariffs were the catalyst for the market downturn, they weren’t the only reason for the decline. Other contributing factors included:

  1. A tsunami of uncertainty. You’ve heard it before: Markets hate uncertainty. The new administration’s tariffs brought a tsunami of uncertainty. Some investors opted for safe havens as they awaited greater clarity around key questions, including:
  • Are the tariffs a negotiating tool or a permanent tax?
  • How will tariffs effect the outlook for economic growth?
  • How will tariffs effect corporate profitability?
  • How will other countries respond?

“The scope, speed and magnitude of the Trump administration’s tariff blitz left investors with a lot of questions. But one point came through crystal clear: The post–World War II global world economic order is no longer. That is forcing a reassessment by countries on how to respond and pushing investors to reassess long-held assumptions about profit margins, investments, and inflation, reported Reshma Kapadia of Barron’s.”

  1. High market valuations. Over the past two-plus years, excitement about artificial intelligence, an economic soft landing, pro-business policies, and other factors have helped lift stock prices to extraordinary levels. By many measures, U.S. stocks were expensive, which made them vulnerable to decline, reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. The imposition of extraordinary tariffs forced investors to reassess expectations for U.S. economic growth, corporate earnings, inflation, and share prices.

“Over the medium to longer term, Trump’s tariff and trade policy will likely accelerate the move to diversify supply chains, emphasize regionalization over globalization, and invest in becoming more self-reliant… But given the uncertainty and increasing costs of inputs, companies may rethink where they allocate long-term capital,” wrote Kapadia. “…’tariffs plus associated uncertainties provide more incentives to build around the U.S., not in the U.S.,’” stated to a source cited by Kapadia.

  1. The tariff narrative. Narrative economics is a theory developed by Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller. Its premise is that viral stories influence economic behavior. As a result, viral narratives can influence markets. Shiller explained, “…whether it’s the belief that tech stocks can only go up, that housing prices never fall, or that some firms are too big to fail. Whether true or false, stories like these—transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social media—drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more.”

Last week, a dominant narrative was that tariffs may cause a trade war, which could have unfavorable and long-lasting effects on the U.S. economy. “While trade wars don’t involve armies and bloodshed, some of the same rules apply—especially when it’s a war of choice. Strengths need to be assessed, allies cajoled, goals set, and preparations made. When done right, victory can be reached with relative ease and result in an increase in standing. When poorly planned, strengths turn into weakness, quick victories become battles of attrition, and unintended consequences can last for years,” reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.

By the end of the week, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was in bear market territory, down more than 20 percent from its previous high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had moved into correction territory, and the S&P 500 Index had experienced its worst week since 2020, reported Amalya Dubrovsky, Karen Friar, and Ines Ferré of Yahoo! Finance. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower, pushing the value of previously issued Treasuries higher.

Stock market volatility is likely to continue as the tariff story plays out. While the tariff story plays out, it’s a good idea to stay calm and focus on your plan. Your portfolio allocation and diversification strategies were put in place to help you achieve your financial goals. Taking drastic action in response to a short-term market upheaval could affect your ability to reach those goals. If you have questions or would like to discuss recent events, please get in touch.

FIRST QUARTER REVIEW: CHANGING EXPECTATIONS. In late January, as the new administration took office, markets anticipated that proposed tariffs would create economic headwinds that could be offset by the positive effects of deregulation (a productivity boost) and tax cuts (economic stimulus), reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s. By the end of the quarter, market expectations had changed dramatically.

“The highest-conviction trades coming into 2025 – buy U.S. exceptionalism and the Magnificent 7, avoid the rest of the world, sell bonds – have been turned on their head. Chinese and German stocks are up by double digits since Jan. 20, while the U.S. – and notably information tech and consumer-discretionary stocks – is down since then,” reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s.

A market rotation
Financial markets experienced a rotation during the first quarter as market expectations shifted. Rotations occur when a dominant trend fades. Typically, investors sell investments that were in favor and buy assets that they believe are better opportunities, reported Sarah Hansen of Morningstar. During the first quarter of 2025, we saw sector, style, and regional rotations.

U.S. technology stocks lost their luster. In the United States, the information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors – home to the Magnificent Seven – delivered stellar total returns in 2023 and 2024. However, their dominance faded in the first quarter of 2025, while more defensive sectors of the market delivered positive returns.

 Value stocks came into favor. “Worries over historically elevated tech stock valuations, combined with a tariff-induced bout of risk avoidance, have driven the recent rotation from growth into value,” reported Esha Dey of Bloomberg. The S&P 500 Value Index was up 0.28 percent during the first quarter, while the S&P 500 Growth Index dropped 8.47 percent.

International stocks outperformed. “As the US stock market lost ground in the quarter, international markets surged amid a global shift. Chinese markets gained 14.17 [percent], while eurozone markets rose 12.24 [percent], thanks in part to major fiscal initiatives designed to stimulate growth and enhance the region’s defense capabilities amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” reported Sarah Hansen of Morningstar.

Rotations can be healthy. The key is “to focus on emerging leadership in other sectors demonstrating relative strength,” stated a source cited by Levisohn.

Weekly Focus – Think About It
“When I hear somebody sigh, ‘Life is hard,’ I am always tempted to ask, ‘Compared to what?’”
Sydney J. Harris, Journalist

Sources:

https://poets.org/poem/if

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-march-2025-04-04/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-04/stock-market-crash-trump-trade-war-hits-s-p-500-nasdaq-100 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-07-25-Bloomberg-Trump-Takes-Wrecking-Ball%20-%203.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-040325?mod=hp_LEDE_A_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-07-25-Barrons-Stock-Market-Worst-Day%20-%204.pdf

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-timeline

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/government-bonds-rally-around-the-world-as-investors-fearing-recession-flock-to-safety-trades-efb75ec3

https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-tariffs-u-s-trade-war-china-europe-cf9a1227 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-07-25-Tariff-Damage-Cant-be-Undone%20-%207.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-expensive-rally-cd5f460e or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-07-25-Barrons-Stock-Market-Avoid-Bloodbath%20-%208.pdf

https://news.yale.edu/2019/11/04/robert-shiller-power-narratives

https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691182292/narrative-economics?srsltid=AfmBOopduHBCkozav1U1akh472maGb7oDUKGAv62lrTKhWZm1eY6lObx

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-trump-tariff-bear-288ed46b?refsec=up-and-down-wall-street&mod=topics_up-and-down-wall-street or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-07-25-Barrons-Trump-is-Fighting-Trade-War%20-%2011.pdf

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-plunges-2200-points-nasdaq-enters-bear-market-as-trump-tariffs-spark-worst-meltdown-since-2020-200042876.html

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-rethink-trump-tariffs-federal-reserve-policy-5776184b?refsec=up-and-down-wall-street&mod=topics_up-and-down-wall-street or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-07-25-Barrons-2025-Market-Prediction-Soured%20-%2014.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-stocks-suffer-trump-economic-paradigm-shift-86306db0?mod=article_inline or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-07-25-Barrons-Trump-Engineering-Paradigm-Shift%20-%2015.pdf

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/stock-market-rotation-is-underway-will-it-last

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/performance-reports/spdji-sector-performance-matrix.pdf

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/performance-reports/dashboard-us-sector.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-28/value-stock-gains-need-fresh-catalyst-with-earnings-a-wild-card or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-07-25-Bloomberg-Value-Stock-Gains%20-%2019.pdf

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-value/#overview and https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-growth/#overview [Factsheets]

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/13-charts-q1s-dramatic-rotation-stocks

https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/365-inspirational-quotes-for-2025/91066225

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