October 2024 - Research Financial Strategies

Happy Halloween!

by Jim Streight | Oct 31, 2024 | Noteworthy

October is coming to an end, and that means Halloween will be here before you know it. Are you ready for the holiday? If you have kids or grandchildren, no doubt they are!

All Hallows Eve is celebrated in many ways today; they are all enjoyable. So, carve those pumpkins. Break out the candy (go ahead, have a little yourself). Keep your kids safe, but let them have fun. Enjoy Halloween!

Weekly Market Commentary

by Jim Streight | Oct 30, 2024 | Carson

The Markets

Financial markets appear to have pre-election jitters.

The United States election is less than two weeks away. The candidates are neck and neck. The outcome remains uncertain. And expectations for volatility have been rising, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finishing last week at 20.33.

“When the VIX goes north of 20, Wall Street pays attention because that level signals heightened volatility,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.

One reason for heightened volatility may be concerns about the election. Ian Salisbury of Barron’s explained, “There are plenty of theories about how particular stocks will fare, depending on next month’s outcome. It isn’t hard to see why. The candidates have tried to curry favor with voters by championing or attacking favored industries, and sometimes individual companies. Vice President Harris has promised to raise the corporate tax rate, a move that could cut into corporate earnings, and Democrats are widely seen as tougher on antitrust issues, a potential hurdle for Wall Street banks looking to capitalize on pent-up [merger and acquisition] activity. Trump, meanwhile, has threatened hefty new tariffs, which could help U.S. manufacturers but hurt multinationals. He’s even threatened individual companies like John Deere over plans to move manufacturing facilities abroad. The good news? Investors can mostly shrug the campaign rhetoric off and focus on stocks’ fundamentals.”

So far, third-quarter earnings reports have been strong. Regardless, stock market investors became significantly less bullish last week, according to the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. The survey asked investors whether they think the stock market will move higher (bullish) or lower (bearish) over the next six months.

Bullish sentiment declined from 45.5 percent the week of October 16 to 37.7 percent last week. (The historic average for bullishness is 37.5 percent.)
Bearish sentiment increased from 25.4 percent to 29.9 percent. (The historic average for bearishness is 31 percent).
Neutral sentiment also increased from 29.2 percent to 32.4 percent. (The historic average is 31.5 percent.)

Bond investors also have been adjusting their expectations. Since mid-October, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has trended higher. At the start of the month, the 10-year note yielded 3.74 percent. Last week, its yield rose from 4.07 percent to 4.23 percent.

“The rise is likely a reflection of the fact the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates fewer times than investors had thought after September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, a result of inflation being above its target and a job market that has grown faster than expected. Also, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election have risen in the past few months, according to RealClearPolitics. His policies include fiscal spending and tariffs, both of which create inflation and throw cold water on the idea that the Fed will cut rates many times. While the economy could continue to grow, tariffs, for their part, not only lift prices, they destroy demand,” reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.

Ben Levisohn of Barron’s offered some advice to anyone getting swept up in pre-election jitters. “The truth of the matter is that reading the financial market tea leaves is far from straightforward…In fact, investing with your politics is one of the worst ways to lose money—or miss out on gains.” If you have concerns about market volatility or the possible effect of the election on your portfolio, get in touch. We’re happy to talk with you about your concerns and your portfolio.

Last week, the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average moved lower, while the Nasdaq notched a seventh week of gains. Yields on longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.

DO YOU TALK ABOUT MONEY? A lot of important events and holidays are coming up in November. There’s Election Day, National Calzone Day, No-Shave November, the International Day for Tolerance and Talk Money Day. That’s right! On November 8, everyone is encouraged to put their fears aside and begin talking with other people—spouses, partners, roommates, friends, adult children, and younger children—about money. It’s not going to be easy—money talk is tough for many people. Sixty-two percent of Americans who participated in a 2023 survey said they did not talk about money. Those who did have financial conversations generally conversed with a spouse or partner, reported Kamaron McNair of CNBC.

There are many reasons people avoid financial conversations. They may:

Believe it is impolite to talk about money.
Worry that discussions will be awkward.
Fear being judged for their choices.
Think their money is no one else’s business.

The issue is less prevalent among younger people than it is among older people, according to CNBC. “…56 [percent] of millennials and 49 [percent] of Gen Zers say they’re having financial conversations on the regular, compared with just 38 [percent] of Gen Xers and 22 [percent] of baby boomers…Talking about money can help young people increase their financial literacy as they learn from and teach their friends. But it’s equally important for younger people to bring up financial topics with their elders—or at least their more experienced peers—especially when it comes to making big decisions,” reported McNair.

While breaking down the money-talk barrier may be challenging, the rewards can be significant. Financial discussions can improve decision-making, strengthen relationships, and help children develop sound money habits. Our goal is to help the people we serve make financial decisions that help them live the lives they want to lead. If talking about money is a difficult hurdle, get in touch. We can help facilitate these important discussions.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“The single biggest problem in communication is the illusion that it has taken place.”

—George Bernard Shaw, Nobel Prize-winning playwright

Sources:

https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-28-24_Cboe_VIX%20Index%20Charts_1.pdf)

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-102324/card/the-dow-keeps-falling-the-market-s-fear-gauge-is-near-a-key-level–349PmzqKaFkDhC1aYtSc?siteid=yhoof2 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-28-24_Barrons_The%20Dow%20Keeps%20Falling_2.pdf)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/portfolio-stress-test-election-4218808a?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-28-24_Barrons_Dont%20Rule%20Out%20a%20Market%20Panic_3.pdf)

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_102524.pdf

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-28-24_Historical%20Sentiment%20Data_5.pdf)

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/history/

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-danger-zone-tariffs-b2bb22e6?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-28-24_Barrons_Stock%20Market%20Enters%20Danger%20Zone_7.pdf)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-trump-harris-election-61b41129?refsec=up-and-down-wall-street&mod=topics_up-and-down-wall-street (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-28-24_Barrons_Market%20is%20Afraid%20of%20Election%20Day_8.pdf)

https://www.barrons.com/market-data (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-28-24_Barrons_Data_9.pdf)

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202410

https://www.calendarr.com/united-states/calendar-november-2024/

https://nationaltoday.com/talk-money-day/

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/americans-arent-talking-about-money-it-could-hold-you-back.html

https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/george_bernard_shaw_385438

Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Mixed Ahead of Election

by Jim Streight | Oct 28, 2024 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Stocks were mixed last week as fresh economic data points and election-related uncertainty slowed market momentum.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.96 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.16 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.68 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 2.30 percent.^1,2

Nasdaq Leads

Stocks were mixed for the first half of the week as investors geared up for a steady stream of Q3 reports. The 10-year Treasury yield continued to trend higher, which caught the attention of some traders.

Markets fell Wednesday morning with news that existing home sales fell to a 14-year low in October; still slowed by higher interest rates, sales are on track for their worst year since 1995. Also, pre-election jitters remained an undertow with traders.^3,4,5

News that durable goods orders rose in September buoyed sentiment a bit. At Friday’s close, the Nasdaq, fueled by technology names, marked its seventh consecutive week of gains but the S&P 500 broke its 6-week winning streak.^6,7

Election Focus

With the election cycle in full swing, some traders appear to be preparing for an uptick in volatility in the coming weeks.

In late August, nearly 90 percent of stock traded above their 20-day moving average. However, that momentum has slowed. On Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s reported that the number of stocks above their 20-day moving average fell to nearly 50 percent. Traders may be moving to more of a “risk off” position ahead of November 5.⁸

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: International Trade in Goods. Consumer Confidence. Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product. Treasury Refunding Announcement. Pending Home Sales. ADP Employment Report.

Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays.

Friday: Employment Situation. ISM Manufacturing Index.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; October 25, 2024}^{The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Waste Management, Inc. (WM)

Tuesday: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL), Visa Inc. (V), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Wednesday: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

Thursday: Apple Inc. (APPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Mastercard Incorporated (MA), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)

Friday: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX)

^{Source: Zacks, October 25, 2024}^{Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Keep your thoughts free from hate, and you need have no fear from those who hate you.”

– George Washington Carver

Is Your Office in a Historic Building? You May Be Eligible for a Tax Credit

To protect heritage sites and other history, the IRS implemented its rehabilitation tax credit, which offers an incentive to renovate and restore old or historic buildings. Here are some of the highlights to help you determine whether your building is eligible:

The credit may pay 20 percent of the qualifying costs of rehabilitating a historic building.
This 20 percent needs to be spread out over five years.
The credit doesn’t apply to the purchase of the building.
Taxpayers use Form 3468, Investment Credit, to claim the rehabilitation tax credit.

Although this credit might not significantly improve many situations, it’s still a step toward preserving our country’s history.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS⁹

Neck and Shoulder Stretches for Desk Potatoes

Many of us sit at a desk for hours a day and stare at a screen. These easy desk stretches can help:

Overhead side stretch: Put your arms over your head and lean in one direction while sitting up straight. Repeat on the other side.
Side-neck stretch: Gently put your hand on the back of your head and guide it to your chest. Then, instead of putting your head straight down, turn it slightly by looking at your thigh.
Neck-roll stretch: Relax and lean your head forward. Slowly roll your head to one side and hold for about 10 to 20 seconds, then slowly roll it to the other side.
Upper-trap stretch: Gently pull your head toward each shoulder. Hold on each side for 10 to 20 seconds.

Tip adapted from Healthline¹⁰

How many times can you subtract the number 75 from 7,500?

Last week’s riddle: How could Gail drive her car from Cleveland to Miami with a flat tire?
Answer: Her spare tire was flat, not any of the four tires she was driving on.

Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) breaching among of icebergs at Ilulissat Icefjord

Unesco World Heritage Site, Greenland

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, October 25, 2024}

^{2. Investing.com, October 25, 2024}

^{3. MarketWatch.com, October 23, 2024}

^{4. The Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2024}

^{5. The Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2024}

^{6. ABA Banking Journal, October 25, 2024}

^{7. CNBC.com, October 25, 2024}

^{8. The Wall Street Journal, October 25, 2024}

^{9. IRS.gov, April 30, 2024}

^{10. Healthline, July 24, 2024}

Weekly Market Insights: Sixth Week of Gains on Wall Street

by Jim Streight | Oct 21, 2024 | Weekly Stock Market Commentary

Stocks posted modest gains last week, with quarterly earnings season in full swing and the election on the horizon.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.85 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.80 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.96 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.31 percent.^1,2

Six in a Row

Stocks bolted out of the gate as the week began. The S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials hit record highs, with the Dow crossing 43,000 for the first time.³

Midweek, news of stronger-than-expected retail sales report contributed to overall market momentum. Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in September, topping economists forecasts.⁴

As the week wrapped up, the technology sector helped fuel a rally that pushed the S&P and Nasdaq to another record high. It was the sixth straight week of gains for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Industrials.⁵

Insight from Corporate Reports

There were many market forces pushing each other around last week.

Corporate earnings reports drove much of the market action. Some of the most extensive financial stocks surprised on the upside, supporting a narrative that the economy remains strong.

At the same time, a corporate report from one of the world’s largest chip manufacturing contractors revealed continued strong global demand for AI microchips. However, increasing investor anxiety was a constant undertow in trading as the November elections drew nearer.⁶